Only one of our models could value this stock with confidence, so use it as a guide.
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Valued as a REIT (property company): Price to FFO and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionVentas Inc. Common Stock (VTR)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$78.00
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 20 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $86.80 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: EV/EBITDA comparison and Price to FFO.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
49
out of 100
Analysts
78% buy
23 covering
P/E
160.7x
forward 109.9x
1-year return
+24.1%
Dividend yield
2.39%
Ventas Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Ventas owns and operates senior housing communities, medical office buildings, and life science properties, leasing most of its healthcare real estate to operators under triple-net and RIDEA structures. Its edge is scale and mix: a large, diversified portfolio concentrated in senior housing, where occupancy recovery and rising rents are the core of the earnings story. Revenue grew 21.7% over the latest reported period, which is the number a PM will want to test against occupancy and same-store NOI trends before anything else. The stock screens expensive on earnings, with a trailing P/E of 154.7 and a forward P/E of 105.7, and ROE of just 2.0%, so the case rests on funds-from-operations growth rather than reported net income. Our composite score of 45/100 and the absence of index membership reflect that tension, so this merits a deeper look only if the FFO and occupancy data hold up.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings decline amid revenue growth
Revenue up 21.7% YoY but earnings down 6.7%. Net margin of 4.1% suggests operational leverage is broken or one-time charges are masking underlying weakness.
high
Valuation multiple compression risk
Forward P/E of 128.2 is extreme for a REIT. ACCE fair value $78 sits below current price of $82.04, leaving limited upside and downside cushion.
high
ACCE score collapse
Score fell 14 points in 90 days (59 to 45). Valuation component (V:27) is deeply depressed, signalling model sees material overvaluation.
moderate
Leverage elevated for REIT
Debt/Equity ratio of 1.06 is high for the sector. Combined with weak earnings growth, refinancing or rate-rise risk warrants attention.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue surged 21.7% year over year, driven by senior housing occupancy and rate gains that show real operational momentum.
Analyst consensus is overwhelmingly bullish, with 83% rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy and a 24.1% upside target.
Free cash flow of 1.3B supports a 2.5% dividend yield while leaving room for debt reduction and reinvestment.
Why it could disappoint
Return on equity of 2.0% and return on invested capital of 0.8% show the company destroys shareholder value at current scale.
Trailing P/E of 151.9x and forward P/E of 128.2x price in years of flawless senior housing recovery with no margin for error.
Debt to equity of 1.06 combined with share dilution of 11.1% last year means refinancing risk and shareholder value leakage.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 27, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where VTR's valuation models land
Price
$86.80
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$33.79
Model
Fair value
Upside
EV/EBITDA comparison
Price to FFO
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores