5 models fit Wal-Mart de Mexico and they disagree: 1 of 5 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Bronze51
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionWal-Mart de Mexico (WALMEX.MX)
Fair value (5 models)
MXN 46.36
ACCE price target
MXN 54.00
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 24 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: MXN 50.77 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 23:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, Dividend discount, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
9.5% above
-8.7% to fair value
ACCE score
47
out of 100
P/E
17.4x
forward 13.6x
1-year return
-17.5%
Dividend yield
2.35%
Wal-Mart de Mexico in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Walmart de Mexico (WALMEX) runs Walmart's Mexican store estate along with Bodega Aurrera, Superama, Sam's Club, and Suburbia apparel stores, which together make it the dominant mass grocery and general merchandise retailer in Mexico. Its moat rests on scale in a fragmented market: few rivals can match its logistics network, private-label reach, and in-store financial services. Growth should be driven by continued store openings and same-store sales gains as Mexican consumer spending and formal retail share keep rising. At 17.0x trailing and 15.5x forward earnings on a market capitalisation of 847.6B MXN, the stock trades at a discount to where a defensive, cash-generative domestic retailer would typically be valued, though we have not yet verified growth or margin trends, which the data we hold leaves blank. The next step is to pull recent same-store sales, margin, and return-on-equity figures before deciding whether the valuation gap reflects a real problem or a missed opportunity.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Flat earnings growth
Revenue grew 1.9% year over year while earnings growth was 0.0%, so profit is not keeping pace with sales. The 5y revenue CAGR of 7.6% is well ahead of the current pace.
moderate
Price below ACCE target
The stock trades 6.0% below the ACCE price target of MXN 54.00, with the price at MXN 50.77. The target is our figure, updated 2026-10-16, and is not a model fair value.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 17, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Walmex has no debt, with debt to equity at 0.00, leaving it well placed if credit tightens.
Return on equity of 21.9% and free cash flow of MXN 43.5B show the business earns strong returns on its capital.
The analysts' mean price target of MXN 57.26 sits 16.3% above the current share price.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue grew just 1.9% over the past year, well below the 7.6% average annual growth of the last five years.
Net margin of 4.9% leaves little room to absorb the rising labor costs flagged as a high-severity risk.
Trailing earnings are priced at 16.7x, and the latest earnings matched expectations exactly with no surprise.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 27, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where WALMEX.MX's valuation models land
Price
MXN 50.77
Model fair value
MXN 46.36
Model range
MXN 26.19 to MXN 63.12
Fair value MXN 46.36
Price MXN 50.77
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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Analysts
Wall Street consensus
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Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
+Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
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