3 models fit VSE Corporation Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionVSE Corporation Common Stock (VSEC)
Fair value (3 models)
$84.28
ACCE price target
$190
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 20 Oct 2026, 14:06 CEST; previously $86.17 since 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 14:06 CEST.
Price used: $142 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
68.7% above
-40.7% to fair value
ACCE score
49
out of 100
Analysts
82% buy
11 covering
P/E
45.4x
forward 23.1x
1-year return
-19.9%
Dividend yield
0.27%
VSE Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
VSE Corporation is a defense and aerospace aftermarket business, best known for its Aviation segment, which overhauls and distributes parts for military and commercial aircraft, and its Fleet segment, which provides maintenance and logistics for U.S. government vehicles. Its edge is a sticky position inside long-cycle military sustainment, where incumbents with approved repair capabilities and government contracts are hard to displace. Revenue grew 65.0% over the period in the data we have, and forward P/E of 22.5 against a trailing 52.4 suggests earnings are expected to catch up quickly with the top line. Gross margin of 15.6% and operating margin of 12.7% are thin for a contractor-style business, and ROE of 4.3% is low, so the question is whether the growth converts into durable profit. At a 4.6 billion dollar market cap and no index membership, this is a name worth a closer look at the earnings bridge and contract backlog before we decide anything further.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Thin free cash flow
FCF is only $6M against a $4.7B market cap, so the 65% revenue jump is not yet converting into cash. Earnings growth of 488% also comes off a low base.
moderate
Elevated valuation multiples
P/E of 53.5 and EV/EBITDA of 33.7 sit well above the forward P/E of 22.5, so the price leans on earnings growth continuing to arrive.
moderate
Insider selling, no buying
The last 10 disclosed insider trades total $4.54M in sales and $0.00M in buys. Insiders own only 1.7% of the company.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 13, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-13 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts are overwhelmingly positive, with 9 of 11 rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
Revenue grew 65.0% year over year, far above its 10.9% yearly average over five years.
The mean analyst price target of $267.22 sits 59.6% above the current share price.
Why it could disappoint
Consensus fair value of $87.09 sits 48.0% below the $167.44 share price.
Free cash flow of $6M over the last 12 months gives a yield of just 0.1% at this price.
The diluted share count rose 18.1% last fiscal year, diluting existing shareholders' stakes.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where VSEC's valuation models land
Price
$142.17
Model fair value
$84.28
Model range
$47.40 to $159
Fair value $84.28
Price $142
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores