Only one of our models could value this stock with confidence, so use it as a guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a cyclical company: Discounted cash flow.
ACCE opinionControladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion (VOLARA.MX)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
MXN 9.00
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: MXN 10.70 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 23:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
33
out of 100
P/E
0.0x
forward 36.6x
1-year return
-18.9%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación (VOLARA.MX) is a Mexican low-cost carrier operating under the Volaris brand, though the data I was given contains no sector, revenue, margin or valuation figures, so I cannot yet size its economics or describe its fleet, route network or cost position with any confidence. What I can say is that at a market capitalisation of roughly 12.7 billion MXN it is a small, unindexed name, which means coverage is thin and any edge would have to come from primary work rather than from the screen. The obvious questions for a deeper look are unit cost per available seat mile against peers, load factors on the Mexico to US transborder routes, fleet age and lease exposure, and how much of the balance sheet is dollar-denominated against peso revenue. Until those numbers are pulled, the case is unproven either way, and it is worth a first pass only if the team has the time to rebuild the financials from filings.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
severe
Shareholder equity deeply negative
ROE of -116.8% and Debt/Equity of 2.66 point to a thin or negative equity base, leaving little cushion against further losses in a capital-heavy airline.
high
Earnings collapse despite revenue growth
Revenue grew 23.9% year on year, yet earnings fell 91.1%, and operating margin is -11.5%. Growth is not converting into profit.
high
Very high leverage
Debt/Equity of 2.66 means debt is well over twice equity, which magnifies downside for shareholders if operating losses persist.
moderate
Long-term revenue shrinking
The five-year revenue CAGR is -32.8%, so the recent 23.9% rise follows a much longer period of contraction. The recovery needs to be sustained to count.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 17, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $434M, a sign the business still generates real cash.
Revenue grew 23.9% year over year in the June interim report, showing demand has recently picked up.
Analysts' mean price target of MXN 15.92 sits 44.4% above the current share price.
Why it could disappoint
Return on equity of -116.8% shows shareholders' capital is being eroded rather than compounded.
Debt to equity of 2.66 leaves the balance sheet heavily reliant on borrowing, which magnifies any downturn.
Revenue has averaged a decline of 32.8% per year over five years, so the recent growth may not yet be a durable trend.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 26, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where VOLARA.MX's valuation models land
Price
MXN 10.70
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
MXN 30.60
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
+Score history: how each score moved over time
Analysts
Wall Street consensus
No analyst coverage yet.
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE
The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
+Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
+Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
+ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
Smart Money
PRO
In one line
Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.