Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
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Valued as a loss-making company: Sales comps and Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionFrontier Group Holdings Inc. Common Stock (ULCC)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
$5.00
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $4.94 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus and Sales comps.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
49
out of 100
Analysts
0% buy
12 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 11.7x
1-year return
+18.8%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Frontier Group Holdings Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Frontier Group flies an ultra-low-cost network of Airbus A320-family aircraft, selling bare-fare seats in Florida-centric leisure markets and a growing set of secondary hubs, with ancillary fees for bags and seat selection doing much of the margin work. Its edge is cost structure: a single aircraft type, high utilization and a lean overhead base that let it undercut legacy carriers on price while still filling planes. Revenue growth of 37.7% reflects capacity added since the pandemic and a push into new routes, but the 1.2 billion dollar market cap is priced against a business that is still loss-making, with an operating margin of -9.2% and a return on equity of -120.2%. The forward P/E of 11.7 hinges on the carrier returning to profit as fuel and labor costs stabilise and capacity discipline holds; the trailing P/E is not meaningful given the losses. Given the thin gross margin of 0.6% and a score of 56/100, this looks like a turnaround candidate that warrants a deeper look at unit revenue trends, cost per available seat mile and liquidity before any conclusion is drawn.
⚠ Investor warnings · 5 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
severe
Negative free cash flow
Free cash flow is $-624M against a $1.1B market cap, with debt at 11.13x equity. The balance sheet is stretched and cash burn is large relative to the company's size.
high
Heavy insider selling
Insiders sold $87.03M across the last 10 disclosed transactions and bought nothing, a one-sided pattern worth weighing in sizing.
high
Extreme short interest
Short interest stands at 40.1% of shares, a very high level that signals strong bearish conviction and raises squeeze or volatility risk.
high
Operating losses and margin deficit
Operating margin is -9.2% and net margin is -9.3%, with ROE at -120.2%. The business is loss-making at the operating line despite revenue growth of 37.7%.
moderate
Score slipped over 90 days
The ACCE score fell from 51 to 47 over 90 days, with quality at 13/100 and value at 42/100. The deterioration is modest but points the same way as the cash and margin data.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 37.7% year over year, well ahead of its 24.4% average annual pace over five years.
Analysts' mean price target of $6.33 sits 34.2% above the current $4.94 share price.
Earnings per share beat expectations by 78.7%, reporting -0.10 against -0.47 expected last quarter.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -$624M, so the business is consuming cash rather than generating it.
Net margin of -9.3% and return on equity of -120.2% show the company is still losing money on its sales and equity.
Debt is 11.13 times equity, and not one of the 12 analysts rates the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 28, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where ULCC's valuation models land
Price
$4.94
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $13.97
Model
Fair value
Upside
Analyst consensus
Sales comps
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores