4 models fit Vulcan Materials Company (Holding Company) Common Stock and they partly agree: 2 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze53
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionVulcan Materials Company (Holding Company) Common Stock (VMC)
Fair value (4 models)
$129
ACCE price target
$245
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST; previously $161 since 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 21 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: $262 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
102.4% above
-50.6% to fair value
ACCE score
48
out of 100
Analysts
67% buy
24 covering
P/E
30.9x
forward 25.1x
1-year return
-10.4%
Dividend yield
0.77%
Vulcan Materials Company (Holding Company) Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Vulcan Materials is the largest US producer of construction aggregates, mainly crushed stone, sand and gravel, plus the asphalt and ready-mixed concrete that use them, sold largely into infrastructure and nonresidential construction. The moat is physical: aggregate quarries are scarce, permitting is slow and costly, and haul distances cap how far a competitor can ship a ton of rock profitably, which supports pricing power. The growth case rests on multi-year public infrastructure spending and on price increases outrunning volume, though revenue growth of 2.5% is modest and the company's 21.6% operating margin is healthy but not exceptional. At 28.9 times trailing earnings and 23.5 times forward, the shares carry a premium to the broader market that the current top-line growth does not obviously justify, and the 42/100 score reflects that gap. The name merits a deeper look mainly to test whether pricing and backlog can lift growth above its current pace, and to see whether the forward multiple compresses as earnings catch up.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
ACCE score collapse
Score fell 15 points in 90 days (57 to 42). Growth and Moat scores particularly weak (31, 17). Signals deteriorating business quality or valuation risk.
high
Growth deceleration
Revenue YoY +2.5% and earnings YoY +2.7% are sharply below 5-year CAGR of +10.3%. QoQ bounce (+22.8%) may be seasonal; underlying trend is slowing.
moderate
Valuation stretched on fundamentals
Forward P/E 22.4 and EV/EBITDA 15.4 are elevated for 2.5% revenue growth.
moderate
Insider selling, no buying
Last 10 disclosures show $0.92M in sales and zero buys. Absence of insider conviction during valuation plateau is a weak signal.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Five-year revenue growth of 10.3% annually shows Vulcan has built a durable business despite current 2.5% year-over-year slowdown.
Net margin of 13.8% and ROE of 13.2% demonstrate pricing power and capital efficiency in aggregates, a fragmented industry.
Free cash flow of 1.1B funds buybacks that reduced share count 0.9% last year while maintaining conservative 0.63 debt-to-equity ratio.
Why it could disappoint
Consensus fair value of 167.79 is 31.4% below the current 244.58 share price, with 4 of 5 valuation models supporting that gap.
Free cash flow yield of 3.6% lags the 5.2% risk-free rate, offering no premium for equity risk in aggregates.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where VMC's valuation models land
Price
$261.69
Model fair value
$129
Model range
$106 to $156
Fair value $129
Price $262
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores