4 models fit Martin Marietta Materials Inc. Common Stock and they partly agree: 2 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze43
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionMartin Marietta Materials Inc. Common Stock (MLM)
Fair value (4 models)
$245
ACCE price target
$495
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST; previously $299 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 21 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST.
Price used: $507 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
107.1% above
-51.7% to fair value
ACCE score
46
out of 100
Analysts
67% buy
24 covering
P/E
33.7x
forward 20.6x
1-year return
-18.1%
Dividend yield
0.65%
Martin Marietta Materials Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Martin Marietta is one of the two largest U.S. producers of construction aggregates, crushed stone, sand and gravel, and it also sells the asphalt and ready-mix concrete made from them, with the aggregates business running at a 20.2% operating margin across the company. The moat is physical: aggregates are heavy and cheap per ton, so quarry locations near end markets and the permits to operate them are hard to replicate, and that scarcity supports pricing. The data here shows 21.0% revenue growth, a forward P/E of 21.8 against a trailing 31.0, and a 28.2% gross margin, which suggests earnings are expected to recover into the multiple. The score of 46/100 and the 8.9% ROE are the reasons to check the balance sheet and acquisition-related leverage before going further. Not in any index, so this is a stock that gets little passive demand and could reprice on a few sell-side revisions.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapse vs revenue growth
Revenue +21.0% YoY but earnings -23.2% YoY signals margin compression or one-time charges. Operating margin 20.2% and net margin 36.7% appear inconsistent with earnings decline.
high
ACCE score deterioration
Score fell 11 points in 90 days (57 to 46). Momentum subscore collapsed to 17/100, suggesting recent negative momentum despite strong revenue growth.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue surged 21.0% year over year while the company returned 978M in free cash flow, showing strong operational execution.
Net margin of 36.7% and share buybacks reducing dilution by 1.8% demonstrate pricing power and shareholder-friendly capital allocation.
Two-thirds of analysts rate the stock a buy or strong buy, with a mean price target implying 32.8% upside from current levels.
Why it could disappoint
The stock trades at 31.3x trailing earnings and 20.6x forward earnings, a 17.5% premium to sector median despite modest 6.1% ROIC.
Consensus fair value sits 37.5% below the current share price, with 4 of 5 valuation models suggesting significant overvaluation.
Return on equity of 8.9% lags the risk-free rate of 5.2%, and free cash flow yield of only 2.9% offers limited margin of safety.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where MLM's valuation models land
Price
$507.17
Model fair value
$245
Model range
$204 to $297
Fair value $245
Price $507
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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