Amrize Ltd Ordinary Shares (AMRZ) fair value

ACCE thesis

Amrize makes cement, aggregates, ready-mix concrete and building products, mostly across North America, and it was spun out from the Holcim group, so the franchise is built on quarries, kilns and plants that are expensive and slow to replicate. Its structural edge is that aggregates and cement reserves near growing metro areas are hard to permit, which supports pricing power through the cycle. Revenue is growing 8.6% and operating margin sits at 20.5%, so the business is converting top-line growth into profit at a healthy rate. The shares trade at 13.4 times forward earnings against 17.0 times trailing, implying the market expects earnings to rise meaningfully over the next year. A score of 55/100 and a 9.7% return on equity suggest the quality case is only moderate, so the question for a portfolio manager is whether the forward earnings step-up holds up under scrutiny.