Market cap €2.5BNext earnings 2026-10-22Updated Oct 17, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 12% above our fair value
Price
€55.20
Model fair valueConfidence: good
€49.11
Model range
€36.24 to €61.70
Fair value €49.11
Price €55.20
4 models fit Viscofan and they disagree: 0 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)Bronze54
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionViscofan (VIS.MC)
Fair value (4 models)
€49.11
ACCE price target
€51.90
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: €55.20 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, Dividend discount, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
12.4% above
-11.0% to fair value
ACCE score
57
out of 100
P/E
15.6x
forward 14.6x
1-year return
+2.4%
Dividend yield
6.04%
Viscofan in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Viscofan makes collagen casings for sausages and other processed meats, along with cellulose casings and related packaging films sold to food processors across Europe, the Americas and Asia. The moat is in the product: its casings are specified into customers' production lines, which makes switching costly and gives the company pricing held through the cycle, reflected in a 63.7% gross margin. Revenue growth of 4.3% and a 15.1% operating margin point to a steady compounder rather than a turnaround. The stock trades at 15.1x trailing earnings and 17.7x forward, a forward multiple above trailing that suggests the market is not pricing in a near-term earnings step-up. With a 17.5% return on equity and a market cap of about 2.4bn EUR, it is a mid-sized name that fits a concentrated book only if the reader is comfortable with a small float and the lack of index membership.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Earnings slipping despite revenue growth
Revenue rose 4.3% year on year but earnings fell 1.3%, so profit is not keeping pace with sales. The forward P/E of 17.7 sits above the trailing 15.1, which points the same way.
moderate
Trades above valuation anchors
The price trades 12.4% above the model fair value of €49.11, and 6.4% above the ACCE price target of €51.90. Limited margin of safety at this level.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached EUR 108M, showing the business turns sales into real cash.
Return on equity of 17.5% and debt to equity of 0.29 point to a profitable business carrying modest borrowing.
Analysts' mean price target of EUR 68.03 sits 26.0% above the current share price, suggesting upside in their view.
Why it could disappoint
The stock trades 12.4% above the model fair value of €49.11, so the price already assumes more than the models support.
Revenue growth slowed to 4.3% last year, below the 6.5% five-year average, leaving less momentum to justify a premium.
Forward P/E of 17.7x is still below the sector median of 18.1x, and the reverse DCF shows the price needs 8.6% yearly cash flow growth forever.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where VIS.MC's valuation models land
Price
€55.20
Model fair value
€49.11
Model range
€36.24 to €61.70
Fair value €49.11
Price €55.20
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
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Analysts
Wall Street consensus
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The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
+Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
+Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
+ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
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