Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. Ordinary Shares (AMBP) fair value
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers · NYSE · United States
$4.56-3.59%
Market cap $2.7BNext earnings 2026-10-22Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 14% above our fair value
Price
$4.56
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$3.99
Model range
$3.36 to $4.74
Fair value $3.99
Price $4.56
2 models fit Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. Ordinary Shares and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)Bronze54
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionArdagh Metal Packaging S.A. Ordinary Shares (AMBP)
Fair value (2 models)
$3.99
ACCE price target
$4.30
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST; previously $3.75 since 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: $4.56 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
14.4% above
-12.6% to fair value
ACCE score
66
out of 100
Analysts
13% buy
8 covering
P/E
91.2x
forward 15.0x
1-year return
+13.4%
Dividend yield
8.46%
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. Ordinary Shares in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Ardagh Metal Packaging makes aluminium beverage cans, mainly 355ml and 473ml formats, for brewers and soft-drink bottlers across Europe and the Americas, and it is one of the larger can producers outside the big two. The structural case rests on aluminium cans taking share from glass and PET, a shift that has supported steady volume demand in beverage packaging. The near-term driver is the gap between a trailing P/E of 93.4 and a forward P/E of 14.8, which signals that reported earnings are depressed by one-offs or restructuring and that the market expects a sharp recovery. Revenue growth of 17.7% and an operating margin of 6.8% sit against a gross margin of only 12.8% and a deeply negative ROE of -63.6%, so the balance sheet and leverage need checking before any upside is credited. With a 60/100 score and a $2.8B market cap, this is a candidate for a deeper look at how much of the forward earnings recovery is contracted versus assumed.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Stretched trailing earnings multiple
Trailing P/E is 93.6 against a forward P/E of 15.4, so reported earnings are depressed and the stock rests on a recovery being delivered. Net margin is only 0.7%.
high
Price above valuation anchors
The stock trades 14.4% above the model fair value of $3.99 and 6.0% above the ACCE price target of $4.30, leaving little margin of safety.
moderate
Negative return on equity
ROE is -63.6% with debt/equity at -6.47, a sign of negative book equity that makes per-share book value a poor guide to downside.
moderate
Score drifting lower
The ACCE score slipped from 62 to 60 over 90 days, with Quality at just 18 of 100 weighing on the composite.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 17.7% year over year, well above the 9.8% five-year yearly average.
The stock offers a 9.5% free cash flow yield, with $265M of free cash flow over the last twelve months.
Analysts' mean price target of $5.04 sits 7.8% above the current share price, and the latest quarter beat expected earnings by 22.2%.
Why it could disappoint
The share price trades 14.4% above the model fair value of $3.99, and consensus sees 19.9% downside to that level.
Debt to equity of -6.47 reflects negative equity alongside heavy debt, and return on equity is -63.6%.
A trailing P/E of 93.6x compares with a forward P/E of 15.4x, below the sector median forward P/E of 17.5x, and the net margin is only 0.7%.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where AMBP's valuation models land
Price
$4.56
Model fair value
$3.99
Model range
$3.36 to $4.74
Fair value $3.99
Price $4.56
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores