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VG
ACCE-researched

Venture Global Inc. Class A common stock (VG) fair value

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream · NYSE · United States
$14.00+9.29%
Market cap $32.0BNext earnings 2026-11-10Updated Oct 21, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 11% above our fair value
Price
$14.00
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$12.65
Model range
$7.82 to $24.61
Fair value $12.65
Price $14.00
4 models fit Venture Global Inc. Class A common stock and they disagree: 0 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Bronze59
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionVenture Global Inc. Class A common stock (VG)
Fair value (4 models)
$12.65
ACCE price target
$13.50
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST; previously $13.30 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $15.00 since 21 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
Price used: $14.00 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
10.7% above
-9.7% to fair value
ACCE score
79
out of 100
Analysts
56% buy
18 covering
P/E
10.1x
forward 14.4x
1-year return
+45.2%
Dividend yield
0.54%

Venture Global Inc. Class A common stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Venture Global owns and operates liquefied natural gas export terminals on the U.S. Gulf Coast, including Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines, and sells LNG under long-term contracts to buyers in Europe and Asia. Its edge is cost and speed: it built its liquefaction capacity on a modular, lower-capex model and has moved from construction to operating volumes faster than most peers, which is what gives it cash flow ahead of rivals still in development. Revenue growth of 47.6% and a 47.8% operating margin show that the ramp is already reaching the income statement, with ROE at 33.6%. The stock trades at 10.3 times trailing earnings and 12.2 times forward, a low multiple for a business growing this fast, so the central question is whether that growth and margin profile holds through commodity price swings and the completion of further phases. This is worth a deeper look to test the durability of the margins and the contract book, not a conclusion in itself.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 13, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 5 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Massive negative free cash flow
    FCF of -$8.6B against $32.9B market cap signals heavy capital intensity or distress. Unsustainable without external funding.
  • high
    Extreme leverage with negative FCF
    Debt/Equity 3.55x combined with -$8.6B FCF creates refinancing risk. Debt service may strain liquidity.
  • high
    Insider selling without offsetting buys
    Last 10 disclosures show $48.31M in sales, $0 in buys. Insiders exiting despite strong earnings growth.
  • moderate
    Exceptionally high short interest
    80.5% short ratio is extreme. Suggests material skepticism about valuation or business model sustainability.
  • moderate
    Sequential revenue decline
    QoQ -0.5% growth despite YoY +47.6%. May signal deceleration or seasonal headwind worth monitoring.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue surged 47.6% year over year with a net margin of 22.1%, showing strong operational leverage in the LNG business.
  • Return on equity of 33.6% and 56% of analysts rating Buy or Strong Buy suggest the market is undervaluing capital efficiency.
Why it could disappoint
  • Negative free cash flow of $8.6B over the last twelve months with a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.55 raises refinancing risk.
  • The reverse DCF implies the market prices in negative 2.9% perpetual cash flow growth, suggesting limited upside from current levels.
  • Share count dilution of 8.9% last fiscal year and a 5.4% ROIC well below the 5.2% risk-free rate erode per-share value.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 10, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where VG's valuation models land
Price
$14.00
Model fair value
$12.65
Model range
$7.82 to $24.61
Fair value $12.65
Price $14.00
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Mixed56% buy · 18 covering analysts
● Strong buy 6● Buy 4● Hold 8● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+10.1%
1 month
+5.5%
3 months
-2.2%
6 months
+17.6%
YTD
+105.3%
1 year
+45.2%

SEC filings

Recent ACCE blog coverage

  • $VG Posts 58.9% Revenue Jump as EPS Holds Flat
    Venture Global $VG reported its most recent quarter on August 11, 2026: revenue up 58.9% YoY, EPS flat at $0.14, ACCE score 79, fair value upside 25.1%.
    2026-08-12
  • $VG delivers record 130 LNG cargos, revenue surges 59% YoY
    Venture Global Inc. delivered 130 LNG cargos with 59% revenue growth year-over-year, signaling accelerated operational ramp-up ahead of schedule.
    2026-05-13

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
21 Oct 2026, 12:04 CESTRatingFairly valuedfirst publication$12.61
21 Oct 2026, 12:04 CESTFair value$12.65$13.30$12.61
18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CESTACCE price target$13.50$15.00$12.72
17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$13.30$13.98$12.50
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$13.98$19.34$13.16
26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$19.34$20.17$13.23
21 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$15.00first publication$14.02
19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$20.17$20.40$14.42
12 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$20.40$20.19$15.50
5 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$20.19$18.72$14.73

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth100Value69Quality78Momentum70Total79
Valuation
Trailing P/E
10.1x
Forward P/E
14.4x
PEG
1.42
P/B
3.87x
EV / Revenue
4.3x
Book value/sh
$3.43
Enterprise value
$72.6B
Profitability
ROE
33.6%
FCF yield
-21.23%
ROIC
5.3%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
5.18
Dividend yield
0.54%
Beta
no data

Price

+47.5% · 1Y

Ask anything about VG

Answered from Venture Global Inc. Class A common stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 100% of peers
low 10.1x10.1xhigh 2267.5x
ROEbetter than 67% of peers
low 1%34%high 71%
Div yieldbetter than 0% of peers
low 0.5%0.5%high 5.4%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
VG Venture Global Inc. Class A common stock$14.00$1311% above10.1x33.6%7879
PBA Pembina Pipeline Corp. Ordinary Shares (Canada)$49.37$2693% above24.6x10.5%7373
PPL.TO Pembina PipelineC$69.13C$3595% above24.8x10.5%6872
OKE ONEOK Inc. Common Stock$93.90$6446% above16.1x16.3%5974
LNG Cheniere Energy Inc. Common Stock$287.01$19746% above21.5x39.1%7178
TRGP Targa Resources Inc. Common Stock$289.54--28.2x70.8%7567
VNOM Viper Energy Inc. Class A Common Stock$45.35--2267.5x1.1%6769

Sector report card

Where VG ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Oct 15, 2026
    Venture Global Secures New Agreements to Support Expansion of Existing Grid-Independent Power Network
  • Business Wire•Oct 1, 2026
    Venture Global and ConocoPhillips Announce 20-Year LNG Sales and Purchase Agreement
  • Business Wire•Sep 14, 2026
    Venture Global and China Gas Announce New Long-Term LNG Agreement
5 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 15
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-10-09
View on SEC →
Oct 15
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-14
View on SEC →
Oct 8
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-10-07
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR