4 models fit Cheniere Energy Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Silver62
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionCheniere Energy Inc. Common Stock (LNG)
Fair value (4 models)
$197
ACCE price target
$300
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST; previously $232 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 20 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: $299 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
51.7% above
-34.1% to fair value
ACCE score
78
out of 100
Analysts
91% buy
22 covering
P/E
21.5x
forward 13.5x
1-year return
+34.8%
Dividend yield
0.78%
Cheniere Energy Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Cheniere operates three liquefied natural gas export terminals on the US Gulf Coast, converting domestic gas into LNG for sale to international buyers under long-term contracts. The company benefits from structural tailwinds: Europe's pivot away from Russian gas, LNG supply constraints globally, and a widening spread between Henry Hub prices and Asian LNG benchmarks that supports export economics. Cheniere's Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion is expected to add 10 million tonnes per annum of capacity by 2026, directly addressing global supply tightness. The stock trades at a 13.4x forward multiple despite 75% operating margins and 39% ROE, while long-term contracts lock in cash flows through the 2040s. At current LNG prices, the company is generating substantial free cash flow with limited refinancing risk, making the valuation compelling relative to the visibility of earnings.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Elevated leverage with cyclical earnings
Debt/Equity of 2.43 is high for energy. Earnings up 101% YoY but 5-year revenue CAGR is -15.8%, signalling cyclicality. Debt serviceability depends on sustained LNG prices.
moderate
Revenue decline over five years
5-year CAGR of -15.8% and recent QoQ decline of -2.3% conflict with +22.7% YoY growth. Suggests prior-year trough, not structural expansion.
moderate
Insider selling without offsetting buys
Last 10 disclosed transactions: $17.4M in sales, $0 in buys. No material insider conviction signal despite score improvement.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue jumped 22.7% year over year while net margin expanded to 13.9%, showing strong pricing power and operational leverage.
Return on equity of 39.1% and 14.2% return on invested capital demonstrate the business generates exceptional returns on shareholder and total capital deployed.
Analysts rate 91% of the stock Buy or Strong Buy with a mean price target of $310.57, implying 11.6% upside from current levels.
Why it could disappoint
Five year revenue has declined 15.8% annually on average, suggesting the recent 22.7% growth may be cyclical rather than structural.
Debt to equity of 2.43 is elevated, and the stock trades at 21.0x trailing P/E against a consensus fair value 8.2% below the current price.
Free cash flow yield of only 1.3% on $721M annual free cash flow suggests limited margin of safety at the current $278.18 share price.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where LNG's valuation models land
Price
$298.67
Model fair value
$197
Model range
$107 to $336
Fair value $197
Price $299
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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