3 models fit TC Energy Corporation Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze40
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionTC Energy Corporation Common Stock (TRP)
Fair value (3 models)
$33.47
ACCE price target
$63.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $32.98 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST.
Price used: $62.40 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, Dividend discount, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
86.4% above
-46.4% to fair value
ACCE score
61
out of 100
Analysts
74% buy
23 covering
P/E
24.6x
forward 22.4x
1-year return
+22.4%
Dividend yield
4.03%
TC Energy Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
TC Energy operates natural gas pipelines, crude oil pipelines, and liquids infrastructure across North America, with the Canadian Mainline and Keystone XL projects as its largest assets. The company benefits from long-term take-or-pay contracts that lock in revenue regardless of volume fluctuations, creating predictable cash flows in a volatile commodity environment. Keystone XL's completion and ramp-up represents the near-term growth catalyst, with the project expected to add material throughput and fee-based revenue starting in 2024. The stock trades at a 21.9x forward multiple despite 44% operating margins and contracted cash flows, which reflects investor caution around regulatory risk and the company's elevated leverage ratio. At current valuations, the risk-reward hinges on whether Keystone XL executes on schedule and whether the market reprices midstream infrastructure as energy security concerns persist.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Leverage and capital intensity
Debt/Equity of 1.70 is elevated for a utility-like midstream operator. FCF of $1.3B must service significant debt; refinancing risk in rising rate environment.
moderate
Score deterioration
ACCE score fell 4 points in 90 days (61 to 57). Momentum subscore (M:47) is weak, signalling deceleration in quality or growth metrics.
moderate
Long-term growth stalled
5-year revenue CAGR of only 0.6% despite recent YoY +5.7%. Suggests cyclical rebound, not structural growth; sustainability unclear.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-09 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Recent earnings beat consensus by 11.5% and revenue grew 5.7% year over year, showing operational momentum.
Net margin of 22.9% and 4.1% dividend yield provide stable cash returns to shareholders.
74% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy with a mean target of $66.65, 11% above current price.
Why it could disappoint
Stock trades at 23.6x trailing P/E, well above the 16.0x energy sector median, leaving little margin for error.
Consensus fair value is $32.98, implying 45.1% downside from the $60.05 share price.
Debt to equity of 1.70 is elevated, and free cash flow yield of only 1.4% limits deleveraging capacity.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where TRP's valuation models land
Price
$62.40
Model fair value
$33.47
Model range
$25.86 to $42.70
Fair value $33.47
Price $62.40
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores