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PBA
ACCE-researched

Pembina Pipeline Corp. Ordinary Shares (Canada) (PBA) fair value

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream · NYSE · United States
$50.34+1.96%
Market cap $29.3BNext earnings 2026-11-05Updated Oct 19, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 97% above our fair value
Price
$50.34
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$25.56
Model range
$17.63 to $30.69
Fair value $25.56
Price $50.34
3 models fit Pembina Pipeline Corp. Ordinary Shares (Canada) and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Silver68
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionPembina Pipeline Corp. Ordinary Shares (Canada) (PBA)
Fair value (3 models)
$25.56
ACCE price target
$46.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $24.94 since 28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 24 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST.
Price used: $50.34 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
97.0% above
-49.2% to fair value
ACCE score
73
out of 100
Analysts
63% buy
19 covering
P/E
24.6x
forward 22.4x
1-year return
+32.0%
Dividend yield
4.20%

Pembina Pipeline Corp. Ordinary Shares (Canada) in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Pembina Pipeline (PBA) operates a network of crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas pipelines in western Canada, plus gas processing and fractionation facilities and export terminals that connect Alberta supply to coastal and US markets. Its contracted, fee-based midstream model, reflected in a 34.0% operating margin and 38.9% gross margin, gives it cash flows that are less tied to commodity prices than upstream producers. Revenue grew 20.1% over the reported period, and at a 23.3x trailing and 21.3x forward P/E the market is paying a premium that the next earnings cycle needs to justify. The 10.5% ROE is modest for a company this size, so the question for the deeper look is whether capital spending on expansion projects, including Alberta gas processing and LPG export capacity, lifts returns as those assets come online. The name clears our screen at a score of 72/100 but sits outside the major indices, which may limit liquidity and the number of investors pressing for re-rating.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 13, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • moderate
    Revenue CAGR collapse
    5-year revenue CAGR is -12.5% despite recent YoY +20.1% growth. Suggests cyclical recovery rather than structural growth; sustainability unclear.
  • moderate
    Valuation premium to model
    Limited upside cushion.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Recent revenue jumped 20.1% year over year, showing strong near-term momentum in the pipeline and marketing business.
  • Net margin of 22.4% and free cash flow of CAD 1.5B demonstrate the company converts revenue into cash efficiently.
  • Dividend yield of 4.4% plus a 3.7% free cash flow yield offer meaningful current income to shareholders.
Why it could disappoint
  • Share price of $47.31 trades 47.0% above the consensus fair value of $25.07 across valuation models.
  • Five year revenue declined 12.5% per year on average, and ROIC of 4.7% lags the risk free rate of 5.2%.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where PBA's valuation models land
Price
$50.34
Model fair value
$25.56
Model range
$17.63 to $30.69
Fair value $25.56
Price $50.34
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish63% buy · 19 covering analysts
● Strong buy 6● Buy 6● Hold 7● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
0 buys · 1 sell
Since Aug 27, 2026, 1 member
Average delay
19 days
From trade to public filing
Full trade list on ProDo politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+0.5%
1 month
+9.8%
3 months
-2.0%
6 months
+16.1%
YTD
+32.3%
1 year
+32.0%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publication$50.10
15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$25.43$24.94$48.60
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$24.94$25.48$63.16
24 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$46.00first publication$45.92
24 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$25.48$25.97$64.49
21 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$25.97$26.30$66.59
12 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$26.30$26.72$66.79
10 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$26.72$26.36$67.86
3 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$26.36$25.95$68.09
29 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$25.95$26.25$67.10

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth80Value63Quality73Momentum77Total73
Valuation
Trailing P/E
24.6x
Forward P/E
22.4x
PEG
0.94
P/B
2.44x
EV / Revenue
6.6x
Book value/sh
C$18.57
Enterprise value
$37.6B
Profitability
ROE
10.5%
FCF yield
6.09%
ROIC
4.6%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.79
Dividend yield
4.20%
Beta
0.75

Price

+32.3% · 1Y

Ask anything about PBA

Answered from Pembina Pipeline Corp. Ordinary Shares (Canada) fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 50% of peers
low 10.1x24.6xhigh 2347.0x
ROEbetter than 33% of peers
low 1%10%high 39%
Div yieldbetter than 50% of peers
low 0.5%4.2%high 5.4%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
PBA Pembina Pipeline Corp. Ordinary Shares (Canada)$50.34$2697% above24.6x10.5%7373
PPL.TO Pembina PipelineC$69.13C$3595% above24.8x10.5%6872
VG Venture Global Inc. Class A common stock$12.81$131% above10.1x33.6%7879
VNOM Viper Energy Inc. Class A Common Stock$45.35--2347.0x1.1%6769
OKE ONEOK Inc. Common Stock$93.90$6446% above16.4x16.3%5974
LNG Cheniere Energy Inc. Common Stock$287.01$19746% above22.6x39.1%7178
TRP.TO TC EnergyC$86.86C$42106% above24.9x11.8%7160

Sector report card

Where PBA ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Oct 5, 2026
    Pembina Pipeline Declares Quarterly Preferred Share Dividends and Announces Third Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call
  • Business Wire•Oct 1, 2026
    Pacific Link Listed as a Project of National Interest
  • Business Wire•Jul 30, 2026
    Pembina Pipeline Reports Results for the Second Quarter of 2026
5 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
25 filings of 40
October 2026
Oct 6
6-KForeign current reportPeriod 2026-10-05
View on SEC →
Oct 1
6-KForeign current reportPeriod 2026-10-01
View on SEC →
August 2026
Aug 13
6-KForeign current reportPeriod 2026-08-13
View on SEC →
22 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR