5 models fit United Parcel Service Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 5 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Silver60
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionUnited Parcel Service Inc. Common Stock (UPS)
Fair value (5 models)
$102
ACCE price target
$102
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $104 since 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: $101 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, Dividend discount, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
0.4% below
+0.4% to fair value
ACCE score
55
out of 100
Analysts
48% buy
29 covering
P/E
18.8x
forward 12.5x
1-year return
+16.1%
Dividend yield
6.46%
United Parcel Service Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
UPS operates a global parcel and freight network that moves roughly 5.5 billion packages annually, generating revenue from ground delivery, air express, and international shipping services. The company's structural advantage lies in its integrated hub-and-spoke infrastructure and customer switching costs, which create durable pricing power in a market where scale matters enormously. Volume growth in e-commerce and a shift toward premium services (next-day and international) are driving margin expansion, with operating margins expected to improve as the company completes its automation investments. The forward PE of 11.7x is attractive relative to a 29.6% ROE, and the company trades below historical multiples despite revenue growth of 7.6% and a cleaner cost structure emerging from recent restructuring. The near-term catalyst is margin recovery as labor productivity gains from automation roll through the network over the next 12-18 months.