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FDX
ACCE-researched

FedEx Corporation Common Stock (FDX) fair value

Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics · NYSE · United States
$298.72-1.71%
Market cap $70.7BNext earnings 2026-10-28Updated Oct 19, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Close to our fair value
Price
$298.72
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$293
Model range
$148 to $457
Fair value $293
Price $299
5 models fit FedEx Corporation Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 5 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Silver64
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionFedEx Corporation Common Stock (FDX)
Fair value (5 models)
$293
ACCE price target
$315
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST; previously $321 since 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST.
Price used: $299 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
1.8% above
-1.8% to fair value
ACCE score
62
out of 100
Analysts
71% buy
28 covering
P/E
16.1x
forward 14.3x
1-year return
+55.6%
Dividend yield
1.61%

FedEx Corporation Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

FedEx operates integrated air and ground networks that move packages and freight globally, with revenue split roughly evenly between express delivery, ground services, and freight forwarding. The company's structural advantage lies in its owned aircraft fleet and hub-and-spoke infrastructure, which create high barriers to entry and allow pricing power during demand spikes that competitors cannot match. Volume recovery in international express and the shift toward higher-margin LTL (less-than-truckload) freight are the near-term drivers, with management targeting 300 basis points of operating margin expansion by 2025. At a forward PE of 14.1 against 12.5% revenue growth and 11.1% operating margins, the stock trades below historical multiples despite a normalized demand environment and improving cost structure from automation investments. The company is also returning capital aggressively, with a 2.2% dividend yield and an active buyback program that has reduced share count by roughly 3% annually over the past three years.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 12, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Earnings decline amid revenue growth
    Revenue up 12.5% YoY but earnings down 4.3%. Margin compression or one-time costs warrant investigation into sustainability of profitability.
  • high
    ACCE score collapse
    Score fell 9 points in 90 days (70 to 61). Growth component particularly weak at 40/100, signaling deterioration in forward momentum.
  • moderate
    Long-term revenue stagnation
    5-year revenue CAGR negative at -2.0%, despite recent YoY uptick. Suggests cyclical bounce rather than structural recovery.
  • moderate
    Elevated leverage with debt-heavy structure
    Debt/Equity ratio 1.36 is material. Combined with logistics cyclicality and earnings pressure, limits financial flexibility in downturn.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-05-31 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • The company generated 8.2% free cash flow yield last month, well above the 5.2% risk-free rate, providing a cash return cushion.
  • Revenue jumped 12.5% year over year while share count fell 1.6%, driving per-share growth even as margins compress.
Why it could disappoint
  • Five-year revenue growth averaged negative 2.0% annually, so the current 12.5% spike may not reflect sustainable demand.
  • Debt to equity of 1.36 leaves limited room to absorb margin pressure if the DRIVE cost program underperforms.
  • The stock's implied 4.6% cash flow growth over five years falls short of historical norms for a logistics leader.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Oct 28, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where FDX's valuation models land
Price
$298.72
Model fair value
$293
Model range
$148 to $457
Fair value $293
Price $299
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish71% buy · 28 covering analysts
● Strong buy 16● Buy 4● Hold 7● Sell 0● Strong sell 1
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
0 buys · 3 sells
Since Jul 21, 2026, 3 members
Average delay
12 days
From trade to public filing
Full trade list on ProDo politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+1.8%
1 month
+2.5%
3 months
-5.2%
6 months
-4.4%
YTD
+28.3%
1 year
+55.6%

SEC filings

Held by ETFs

ETFs we cover that hold FedEx Corporation Common Stock among their largest holdings, by weight.

  • DIVO · Amplify CWP Enhanced Dividend Income3.0% of the fund
  • VLUE · iShares MSCI USA Value Factor1.2% of the fund
Holdings as of 2026-10-24

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CESTRatingFairly valuedfirst publication$294
19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CESTFair value$293$321$294
15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$321$341$291
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$341$336$292
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$336$331$286
26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$331$339$280
19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$315first publication$304
14 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$339$345$312
12 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$345$339$312
10 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$339$348$314

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth40Value83Quality56Momentum70Total62
Valuation
Trailing P/E
16.1x
Forward P/E
14.3x
PEG
no data
P/B
2.18x
EV / Revenue
1.0x
Book value/sh
$131.86
Enterprise value
$98.6B
Profitability
ROE
14.8%
FCF yield
7.24%
ROIC
4.9%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
1.36
Dividend yield
1.61%
Beta
1.33

Price

+53.7% · 1Y

Ask anything about FDX

Answered from FedEx Corporation Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 83% of peers
low 13.0x16.1xhigh 41.3x
ROEbetter than 17% of peers
low 7%15%high 44%
Div yieldbetter than 33% of peers
low 0.5%1.6%high 6.5%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
FDX FedEx Corporation Common Stock$298.72$2932% above16.1x14.8%5662
DHL.DE DHL Group€57.28€6613% below17.6x18.1%5775
UPS United Parcel Service Inc. Common Stock$101.06$102At fair value18.8x29.6%5755
DSV.CO DSVkr 1372.50kr 91151% above41.3x6.9%5147
PST.MI Poste Italiane S.p.A.€24.00€254% below13.0x18.2%6257
KNIN.SW Kuehne + Nagel InternationalCHF 227.10CHF 20013% above31.3x44.3%5763
EXPD Expeditors International of Washington Inc. Common Stock$196.21$12655% above28.7x42.7%7078

Sector report card

Where FDX ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • PR Newswire•Oct 7, 2026
    T.D. Jakes Foundation and Partners Connect 858 Job Seekers to Employment and Career Resources at You're Hired Job Fest
  • Business Wire•Oct 6, 2026
    FedEx Dataworks and Stripe to Join Forces to Reduce Friction in Global Commerce for SMBs
  • PR Newswire•Sep 30, 2026
    Harbinger Receives Order for 2,000 Electric Trucks from FedEx valued at over $300 Million
23 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
September 2026
Sep 29
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-09-28
View on SEC →
Sep 25
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-24
View on SEC →
Sep 14
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-09-09
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR