3 models fit UMB Financial Corporation Common Stock and they agree: 3 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Bronze51
Valued as a bank: Residual income, P/E comparison, Dividend discount, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionUMB Financial Corporation Common Stock (UMBF)
Fair value (3 models)
$142
ACCE price target
$149
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $145 since 4 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 14:06 CEST.
Price used: $136 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Dividend discount, Graham number, P/E comparison, and Residual income.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
4.7% below
+4.9% to fair value
ACCE score
78
out of 100
Analysts
81% buy
16 covering
P/E
11.3x
forward 9.6x
1-year return
+21.9%
Dividend yield
1.27%
UMB Financial Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
UMB Financial is a Kansas City regional bank whose business runs through commercial and retail banking, plus a sizeable institutional asset servicing and fund administration franchise that sits outside the usual lending cycle. That fee-generating servicing arm is the structural piece worth underwriting, because it gives the bank steadier revenue than a pure loan book. Revenue grew 12.2% over the trailing period, and the company converts half of each revenue dollar into operating profit (51.1% operating margin), with a 12.3% return on equity. The stock trades at 11.0 times trailing earnings and 9.6 times forward earnings, so the market is still pricing in a bank rather than a fee-based compounder. The gap between that multiple and the growth and profitability on the page is what justifies a closer look at deposit costs, credit quality and how durable the servicing fees are through a rate-cutting cycle.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Score down sharply
ACCE score fell 13 points, from 88 to 75, over 90 days, with the momentum sub-score at 70. Something in the trend has weakened even though the fundamentals remain solid.
moderate
Insider selling outweighs buying
Last 10 disclosed insider transactions show $4.66M in sales against $0.14M in buys. Insiders hold 5.3% of shares, so this is a modest but one-directional signal.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Shares trade at 9.6x forward earnings, below the sector median of 11.9x, and the stock looks cheap against peers.
Free cash flow of $978M over the last twelve months implies a 9.8% free cash flow yield at the current share price.
Analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy at 81% (13 of 16), and their mean price target sits 25.1% above the share price.
Why it could disappoint
Return on equity of 12.3% and return on invested capital of 5.0% are modest for a company asking investors to pay a premium multiple.
The diluted share count rose 55.9% over the last fiscal year, which heavily dilutes existing shareholders' claim on earnings and cash flow.
The business is fee-heavy and sensitive to market swings, and commercial credit quality is a key risk on file.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 27, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where UMBF's valuation models land
Price
$135.51
Model fair value
$142
Model range
$128 to $157
Fair value $142
Price $136
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
Graham number
P/E comparison
Residual income
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores