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UMBF

UMB Financial Corporation Common Stock (UMBF) fair value

Financial Services · Banks - Regional · NASDAQ · United States
$135.51-0.48%
Market cap $10.3BNext earnings 2026-10-27Updated Oct 20, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Close to our fair value
Price
$135.51
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$142
Model range
$128 to $157
Fair value $142
Price $136
3 models fit UMB Financial Corporation Common Stock and they agree: 3 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Bronze51
Valued as a bank: Residual income, P/E comparison, Dividend discount, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionUMB Financial Corporation Common Stock (UMBF)
Fair value (3 models)
$142
ACCE price target
$149
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $145 since 4 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 14:06 CEST.
Price used: $136 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Dividend discount, Graham number, P/E comparison, and Residual income.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
4.7% below
+4.9% to fair value
ACCE score
78
out of 100
Analysts
81% buy
16 covering
P/E
11.3x
forward 9.6x
1-year return
+21.9%
Dividend yield
1.27%

UMB Financial Corporation Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
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OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

UMB Financial is a Kansas City regional bank whose business runs through commercial and retail banking, plus a sizeable institutional asset servicing and fund administration franchise that sits outside the usual lending cycle. That fee-generating servicing arm is the structural piece worth underwriting, because it gives the bank steadier revenue than a pure loan book. Revenue grew 12.2% over the trailing period, and the company converts half of each revenue dollar into operating profit (51.1% operating margin), with a 12.3% return on equity. The stock trades at 11.0 times trailing earnings and 9.6 times forward earnings, so the market is still pricing in a bank rather than a fee-based compounder. The gap between that multiple and the growth and profitability on the page is what justifies a closer look at deposit costs, credit quality and how durable the servicing fees are through a rate-cutting cycle.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • moderate
    Score down sharply
    ACCE score fell 13 points, from 88 to 75, over 90 days, with the momentum sub-score at 70. Something in the trend has weakened even though the fundamentals remain solid.
  • moderate
    Insider selling outweighs buying
    Last 10 disclosed insider transactions show $4.66M in sales against $0.14M in buys. Insiders hold 5.3% of shares, so this is a modest but one-directional signal.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Shares trade at 9.6x forward earnings, below the sector median of 11.9x, and the stock looks cheap against peers.
  • Free cash flow of $978M over the last twelve months implies a 9.8% free cash flow yield at the current share price.
  • Analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy at 81% (13 of 16), and their mean price target sits 25.1% above the share price.
Why it could disappoint
  • Return on equity of 12.3% and return on invested capital of 5.0% are modest for a company asking investors to pay a premium multiple.
  • The diluted share count rose 55.9% over the last fiscal year, which heavily dilutes existing shareholders' claim on earnings and cash flow.
  • The business is fee-heavy and sensitive to market swings, and commercial credit quality is a key risk on file.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Oct 27, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where UMBF's valuation models land
Price
$135.51
Model fair value
$142
Model range
$128 to $157
Fair value $142
Price $136
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
Graham number
P/E comparison
Residual income
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish81% buy · 16 covering analysts
● Strong buy 6● Buy 7● Hold 3● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+3.4%
1 month
+1.2%
3 months
-4.0%
6 months
+10.9%
YTD
+17.8%
1 year
+21.9%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
20 Oct 2026, 14:06 CESTRatingFairly valuedfirst publication$130
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$142$145$130
10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$149first publication$130
4 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$145$148$131
21 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$148$150$135
16 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$150$153$140
5 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$153$150$143
3 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$150$152$138
25 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$152$154$144
20 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$154$135$150

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth68Value80Quality86Momentum77Total78
Valuation
Trailing P/E
11.3x
Forward P/E
9.6x
PEG
0.43
P/B
1.32x
EV / Revenue
4.0x
Book value/sh
$101.87
Enterprise value
$12.2B
Profitability
ROE
12.3%
FCF yield
9.46%
ROIC
5.0%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.49
Dividend yield
1.27%
Beta
0.83

Price

+19.3% · 1Y

Ask anything about UMBF

Answered from UMB Financial Corporation Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 83% of peers
low 8.7x11.3xhigh 37.4x
ROEbetter than 80% of peers
low 3%12%high 16%
Div yieldbetter than 0% of peers
low 1.3%1.3%high 3.7%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
UMBF UMB Financial Corporation Common Stock$135.51$1425% below11.3x12.3%8678
8331.T The Chiba Bank, Ltd.¥2371.50¥148660% above17.0x8.3%6180
8421.T Shinkin Central Bank¥187900.00--37.4x2.9%5549
5831.T Shizuoka Financial Group,Inc.¥2894.00¥201544% above15.7x8.2%6172
7186.T Yokohama Financial Group, Inc.¥1611.50¥111045% above16.9x-7173
INDIANB.NS Indian Bank₹837.15--8.7x16.1%6869
7167.T Mebuki Financial Group,Inc.¥1445.00--14.4x9.2%6173

Sector report card

Where UMBF ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Oct 7, 2026
    UMB Announces Conference Call to Discuss Third Quarter 2026 Results
  • PR Newswire•Sep 2, 2026
    Angela M.W. Kelley to join Associated Bank as General Counsel
  • Business Wire•Jul 28, 2026
    UMB Financial Corporation Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
2 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
September 2026
Sep 3
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-01
View on SEC →
Sep 3
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-01
View on SEC →
Sep 1
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-09-01
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR