Financial Services · Banks - Regional · TSE · Japan
¥2371.50-3.87%
Market cap ¥1.63TNext earnings 2026-11-09Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 60% above our fair value
Price
¥2371.50
Model fair valueConfidence: good
¥1486
Model range
¥898 to ¥2074
Fair value ¥1486
Price ¥2372
2 models fit The Chiba Bank, Ltd. and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Silver60
Valued as a bank: P/E comparison and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionThe Chiba Bank, Ltd. (8331.T)
Fair value (2 models)
¥1486
ACCE price target
¥2313
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 10:03 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Rating published on 23 Oct 2026, 10:03 CEST.
Price used: ¥2372 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 08:30 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
59.6% above
-37.3% to fair value
ACCE score
80
out of 100
P/E
17.0x
forward 21.5x
1-year return
+59.2%
Dividend yield
2.59%
The Chiba Bank, Ltd. in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
The Chiba Bank is a regional lender in Chiba Prefecture, east of Tokyo, earning its money from deposits, mortgages, corporate lending and securities and wealth products sold through its branch network. Its edge is the deposit franchise in one of Japan's largest metropolitan catchments, where a low-cost retail funding base has historically kept it profitable in a near-zero-rate environment. The more immediate story is the rate cycle: with Japanese policy rates moving up, net interest margins on its loan book should widen faster than funding costs, which is the kind of leverage a regional bank rarely gets to show. The reported 51.8% revenue growth and 36.3% operating margin are the headline figures to check, since a jump that size usually reflects a one-off gain or a change in how income is booked, not a steady run rate. Against that, the 8.3% ROE is modest, and the forward P/E of 22.4 sits above the trailing 17.4, so the market is pricing in a recovery in earnings that has not yet shown up in the numbers, which makes this worth a deeper look at the earnings bridge before anything else.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Revenue growth may be inflated
Revenue is up 51.8% YoY against a 5-year CAGR of 9.6%, so the latest year looks like an outlier rather than a trend. Check whether a one-off or accounting effect is driving it.
moderate
Trades above ACCE target
The price of ¥2371.50 sits 2.5% above the ACCE price target of ¥2313.00. Position sizing should reflect that the stock already trades beyond our target.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue jumped 51.8% year over year, far above the company's 9.6% average annual growth over five years.
Latest earnings beat expectations, with EPS of 43.16 against 35.80 expected, a surprise of 20.6%.
Analysts' mean price target of JPY 3272.86 sits 32.7% above the current share price.
Why it could disappoint
Return on equity is only 8.3%, a weak return for shareholders on the capital the bank holds.
At 22.4x forward earnings the shares look expensive, and that forward multiple sits above the trailing 17.0x.
The share price has already risen to ¥2371.50, trading 2.5% above the ACCE price target of ¥2313.00.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where 8331.T's valuation models land
Price
¥2371.50
Model fair value
¥1486
Model range
¥898 to ¥2074
Fair value ¥1486
Price ¥2372
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
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