Financial Services · Banks - Regional · TSE · Japan
¥187900.00+0.16%
Market cap ¥1.64TNext earnings 2026-10-28Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 229% above our fair value
Price
¥187900.00
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
¥57103
Only one of our models could value this stock with confidence, so use it as a guide.
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Valued as a bank: Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionShinkin Central Bank (8421.T)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
¥165528
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Price used: ¥187900 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 08:30 CEST.
Models: Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
49
out of 100
P/E
37.4x
1-year return
-1.1%
Dividend yield
3.46%
Shinkin Central Bank in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Shinkin Central Bank is the central institution for Japan's Shinkin banks, the member-owned cooperative lenders that serve small businesses and individuals, and it manages their liquidity, funding and investment book. The structural case rests on that position: the cooperative network funnels deposits to the centre, which invests them domestically and abroad, so earnings track Japanese rate spreads and the health of regional small-business lending. Revenue grew 24.5% over the trailing period and the operating margin is 31.2%, but the 2.9% ROE is very low for a bank and the 37.4x trailing P/E is high, which suggests a large equity base earning thinly and earnings that may be cyclical or lumpy. With no forward P/E available and no index membership, a deeper look should start with what drove the revenue jump (rate normalisation versus balance sheet growth), how much of the 31.2% operating margin is recurring, and why equity returns remain so modest.
⚠ Investor warnings · 1 flagAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Valuation stretched
P/E of 37.4 is high for a regional bank with ROE of only +2.9%. The stock trades 13.5% above the ACCE price target of ¥165528.00, so the price already assumes a lot.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 24.5% year over year, and the five-year average annual growth rate is 21.0%.
A net margin of 21.6% means the bank keeps a large share of each yen of revenue as profit.
The dividend yield of 3.5% gives holders a cash return while they wait for the share price to move.
Why it could disappoint
Return on equity is only 2.9%, which means the bank earns very little on the capital shareholders have put in.
At a trailing P/E of 37.4x, investors are paying a steep price for each yen of recent earnings.
The share price of ¥187900.00 sits 13.5% above the ACCE price target of ¥165528.00.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where 8421.T's valuation models land
Price
¥187900.00
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
¥57103
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
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