2 models fit TUI AG and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is below every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Gold83
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionTUI AG (TUI1.DE)
Fair value (2 models)
€11.94
ACCE price target
€8.60
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 22 Oct 2026, 14:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:53 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 14:04 CEST.
Price used: €6.58 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
44.9% below
+81.5% to fair value
ACCE score
50
out of 100
P/E
6.0x
forward 4.9x
1-year return
-10.8%
Dividend yield
1.44%
TUI AG in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
TUI AG is a Hanover-based integrated travel group that runs its own tour operator brands, cruise and hotel businesses, and a retail distribution network of travel agencies. Its structural edge is vertical integration: owning hotels, ships and flights lets it capture margin that independent agents and online intermediaries would otherwise take, and that footprint is hard to replicate at this scale. Revenue fell 6.1% over the latest period, so the near-term case rests on whether demand and pricing hold up rather than on top-line momentum. The shares trade at 6.2 times trailing earnings and 5.1 times forward earnings, a steep discount for a business with a 35.7% return on equity, though the 2.1% operating margin and 8.2% gross margin show how thin the profit pool is and how sensitive it is to a downturn in bookings. With a market cap of about 3.4 billion euros and no index membership, the name sits in the part of the market where a concentrated fund could build a position in size, but the thesis needs confirmation that falling revenue reflects a cyclical dip and not a loss of share.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapsing year on year
Earnings fell 55.6% YoY while revenue dropped 6.1%. Operating margin of 2.1% and net margin of 2.5% leave almost no buffer against further deterioration.
high
Leveraged balance sheet
Debt/Equity of 2.52 is high for a company with shrinking revenue. Weak margins make that leverage harder to service if travel demand softens.
moderate
Cheap multiples may reflect risk
The stock trades at 44.9% below the model fair value of €11.94, with a P/E of 6.2 and EV/EBITDA of 1.5. The discount may be pricing in the falling earnings and high leverage rather than a mispricing.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Trailing and forward earnings multiples sit far below the sector median, with forward P/E at 5.1x against 17.5x for the sector.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached EUR 990M, and the free cash flow yield is 28.1%.
Analysts' mean price target of EUR 9.85 sits 45.3% above the current share price.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 6.1% year over year, well below the 24.9% average annual growth over the last five years.
Debt to equity stands at 2.52 and the diluted share count rose 8.0% last fiscal year, diluting existing holders.
The latest earnings per share missed expectations by 28.0%, with EPS of 0.18 against 0.25 expected.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Dec 9, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where TUI1.DE's valuation models land
Price
€6.58
Model fair value
€11.94
Model range
€9.38 to €13.77
Fair value €11.94
Price €6.58
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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