3 models fit Global Business Travel Group Inc. Class A Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Gold89
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionGlobal Business Travel Group Inc. Class A Common Stock (GBTG)
Fair value (3 models)
$5.96
ACCE price target
$10.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST; previously $6.06 since 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
Price used: $9.50 at the close on 29 Sept 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
59.4% above
-37.3% to fair value
ACCE score
68
out of 100
Analysts
86% buy
7 covering
P/E
59.4x
forward 18.3x
1-year return
+16.1%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Global Business Travel Group Inc. Class A Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Global Business Travel Group (Amex GBT) runs a corporate travel management platform, selling booking, expense and duty-of-care services to companies that buy travel through its Egencia and Amex GBT brands. Its advantage is scale in managed travel, where large clients value consolidated purchasing, policy compliance and negotiated airline and hotel rates, and that stickiness supports a 58.5% gross margin. Revenue growth of 37.9% reflects the post-pandemic recovery in business travel plus the Cliqr and CWT acquisitions, though a 6.3% ROE and 11.4% operating margin show the earnings base is still thin. The stock trades at 59.4 times trailing earnings but 14.4 times forward, a gap that rests on margin expansion from here, which is the number to test first. Worth a deeper look if you can get comfortable with leverage and whether operating margins keep widening as travel volumes normalise.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Valuation stretched on earnings
Trailing P/E is 59.4 against a forward P/E of 14.4. Net margin is only 2.8% and earnings grew 5.7% YoY. The price trades 59.4% above the model fair value of $5.96.
moderate
Leverage and insider selling
Debt/Equity is 0.94. Insiders disclosed $1.64M in sales and no buys across the last 10 filings, while insiders hold 56.3% of the stock.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Sep 29, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 37.9% over the last year, well ahead of its 27.9% average annual pace over five years.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $104M, and 86% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
On forward earnings the stock trades at 14.4x, below the sector median of 17.8x, while the analysts' mean price target sits at the current share price.
Why it could disappoint
Net margin is only 2.8% and return on invested capital is 2.9%, so the growth is not yet turning into much profit.
The share price is 59.4% above the model fair value of $5.96, and three of four valuation models sit there.
Shares outstanding rose 13.2% last fiscal year, and the latest earnings per share came in 25.0% below expectations.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 9, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where GBTG's valuation models land
Price
$9.50
Model fair value
$5.96
Model range
$3.80 to $7.92
Fair value $5.96
Price $9.50
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
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