4 models fit Tyson Foods Inc. Common Stock and they partly agree: 2 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Bronze42
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionTyson Foods Inc. Common Stock (TSN)
Fair value (4 models)
$56.08
ACCE price target
$59.00
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST; previously $55.05 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $54.00 since 26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST.
Price used: $56.70 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
1.1% above
-1.1% to fair value
ACCE score
46
out of 100
Analysts
38% buy
13 covering
P/E
35.2x
forward 11.2x
1-year return
+9.4%
Dividend yield
0.89%
Tyson Foods Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Tyson Foods sells branded and private-label chicken, beef, and pork, plus prepared foods such as Jimmy Dean and Hillshire Farm, through a vertically integrated chain from livestock to retail packaging. Its scale in protein processing is the core asset, but the data here shows little current earnings power to show for it: revenue growth is flat at -0.1%, operating margin is 2.7%, and ROE is 3.3%. The gap between a trailing P/E of 33.2 and a forward P/E of 13.1 signals that the market expects earnings to recover sharply, and the thesis hinges on whether protein pricing and cost discipline deliver that rebound. The score of 45/100 and absence from any index suggest the market is not yet paying for that recovery, so the case rests on a margin turn that has not yet shown up in reported results. Worth a deeper look only if you have a view on the cattle and chicken cycles and on how quickly the forward earnings estimate can be trusted.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
ACCE score collapse
Score fell 9 points to 45/100 in 90 days. Quality (30) and Momentum (32) are weak. Growth deceleration and margin sustainability concerns.
high
Earnings spike not sustainable
YoY earnings up 204% but revenue flat (−0.1%). Suggests one-time gains or cost cuts, not operational improvement. Forward P/E of 13 assumes normalization.
moderate
Profitability metrics fragile
ROE only 3.3% and net margin 1.0% despite gross margin recovery. Operating leverage weak; cost structure inflexible or competitive pressure high.
moderate
Stalled revenue growth
5-year CAGR +0.7%, recent YoY −0.1%. Commodity-exposed business with minimal top-line momentum. QoQ +1.6% is seasonal noise, not trend.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Stock trades at 13.1x forward earnings, well below the 18.1x sector median, offering valuation upside.
Free cash flow yield of 6.3% exceeds the 5.2% risk-free rate, providing an attractive cash return floor.
Share buybacks reduced diluted share count by 2.2% last year while the company generated $1.2B in free cash flow.
Why it could disappoint
Net margin of 1.0% leaves almost no buffer against input cost spikes or pricing pressure in retail protein.
Revenue declined 0.1% year over year, forcing any earnings recovery to depend entirely on margin expansion.
Return on equity of 3.3% and return on invested capital of 1.4% are far below the cost of capital.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 16, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where TSN's valuation models land
Price
$56.70
Model fair value
$56.08
Model range
$43.86 to $76.25
Fair value $56.08
Price $56.70
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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