5 models fit Archer-Daniels-Midland Company Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 5 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Silver79
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionArcher-Daniels-Midland Company Common Stock (ADM)
Fair value (5 models)
$86.48
ACCE price target
$79.40
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $85.41 since 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $96.00 since 6 May 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $80.14 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, Dividend discount, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
7.3% below
+7.9% to fair value
ACCE score
65
out of 100
Analysts
9% buy
11 covering
P/E
21.9x
forward 15.6x
1-year return
+28.2%
Dividend yield
2.60%
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Archer-Daniels-Midland processes oilseeds into soybean meal and oil, corn into ethanol and sweeteners, and runs a large agricultural origination and trading network that moves grain from farms to ports and processors worldwide. The durable edge is scale in that origination and crush footprint, which is hard to replicate and gives the company a view of global feedstock flows that smaller competitors lack. Revenue grew 7.2% in the latest reported period, and the stock trades at 15.6 times forward earnings against 22.7 times trailing, a gap that implies the market expects earnings to recover from a cyclically depressed base. Thin margins are the central issue: a 6.9% gross margin and 4.0% operating margin leave little cushion, and ROE of 7.6% is modest for a company this size. The thesis rests on whether the forward earnings step-up materializes as crush margins and biofuel demand normalize, so the next step is to test those margin assumptions against the segment data.