2 models fit Adecoagro S.A. Common Shares and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionAdecoagro S.A. Common Shares (AGRO)
Fair value (2 models)
$4.20
ACCE price target
$10.60
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 24 Oct 2026, 16:06 CEST; previously $18.72 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 24 Oct 2026, 16:06 CEST.
Price used: $10.12 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
140.9% above
-58.5% to fair value
ACCE score
65
out of 100
Analysts
13% buy
8 covering
P/E
25.9x
forward 7.3x
1-year return
+28.6%
Dividend yield
3.01%
Adecoagro S.A. Common Shares in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
Adecoagro grows and processes sugarcane, corn and soybeans in Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay, and it sells the output as ethanol, sugar, bioenergy and farmland-derived grain. The company's edge is its integrated mix of farming and processing across three South American countries, which lets it capture margin at more than one step of the chain and hedge some of the currency and commodity swings that hit single-crop operators. Revenue grew 39.0% on the latest reported period, and gross margin of 25.9% with operating margin of 17.0% shows that growth is coming with real profitability, not just volume. The stock trades at 19.3x forward earnings against 25.8x trailing, so the market is pricing in a meaningful earnings recovery, and that gap is the first thing to test. Low ROE of 3.7% and no index membership mean the profit base is still thin and the name is under-owned, so a deeper look should focus on whether this year's margins are repeatable through the commodity cycle.