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TG

Tredegar Corporation Common Stock (TG) fair value

Industrials · Metal Fabrication · NYSE · United States
$7.31-8.97%
Market cap $255MNext earnings 2026-11-06Updated Oct 20, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 33% below our fair value
Price
$7.31
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$10.86
Model range
$3.11 to $16.68
Fair value $10.86
Price $7.31
3 models fit Tredegar Corporation Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Bronze53
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionTredegar Corporation Common Stock (TG)
Fair value (3 models)
$10.86
ACCE price target
$7.50
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $10.32 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $7.31 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
32.7% below
+48.5% to fair value
ACCE score
68
out of 100
P/E
7.8x
forward 11.1x
1-year return
-0.1%
Dividend yield
0.00%

Tredegar Corporation Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
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OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Tredegar makes aluminum extrusions for building and construction, plus PVC films and polyethylene films for packaging and personal care, and its Bonnell Aluminum unit is the piece the market tends to overlook. Revenue growth of 20.8% is the headline number, but with a 14.6% gross margin and a 4.0% operating margin, the economics are thin and the business is more sensitive to aluminum pricing and volume than the top line suggests. At a trailing P/E of 8.1 and a forward P/E of 11.1, the market is pricing in earnings that are expected to fall somewhat, so the bet is on margin recovery rather than on a growth story. The return on equity of 15.5% is respectable for a company this size, and the $274M market cap with no index membership means coverage is thin enough that mispricing can persist. This is a name that merits a deeper look at the margin trajectory and the Bonnell volume outlook before anything else.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Revenue growth not sustained
    Five-year revenue CAGR is -0.9%, so the +20.8% YoY rebound looks cyclical rather than structural. Quarter-on-quarter revenue is recorded at -100.0%, which needs checking against the filings.
  • moderate
    Thin operating margin
    Operating margin of 4.0% and net margin of 4.3% leave little cushion if input costs or volumes turn. The +258.3% earnings jump off a low base may not repeat.
  • moderate
    Zero recorded insider trades
    Insiders own 19.6% but no buys or sales appear in the last 10 disclosed transactions, so there is no recent signal from management either way.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 21, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue grew 20.8% year over year, a sharp pickup after five years of slightly shrinking sales.
  • Analysts' mean price target of $17.00 sits well above the current share price.
Why it could disappoint
  • Five-year revenue has averaged a decline of 0.9% a year, so the recent jump may not last.
  • The diluted share count rose 1.1% last year, diluting existing holders even as the business is valued cheaply.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 6, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

PRO

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where TG's valuation models land
Price
$7.31
Model fair value
$10.86
Model range
$3.11 to $16.68
Fair value $10.86
Price $7.31
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

No analyst coverage yet.
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
-6.8%
1 month
+4.3%
3 months
-4.8%
6 months
-22.4%
YTD
+1.8%
1 year
-0.1%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CESTRatingUndervaluedfirst publication$7.89
16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$10.76$10.32$7.64
15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$7.50first publication$7.61
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$10.32$14.92$7.03
27 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$14.92$14.74$7.05
18 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$14.74$14.92$6.89
15 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$14.92$14.68$7.16
13 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$14.68$15.41$7.16
2 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$15.41$15.62$7.69
31 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$15.62$14.97$7.80

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth88Value91Quality53Momentum38Total68
Valuation
Trailing P/E
7.8x
Forward P/E
11.1x
PEG
0.90
P/B
1.04x
EV / Revenue
0.4x
Book value/sh
$6.67
Enterprise value
$281M
Profitability
ROE
15.5%
FCF yield
5.63%
ROIC
10.4%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.22
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
0.77

Price

-2.3% · 1Y

Ask anything about TG

Answered from Tredegar Corporation Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 50% of peers
low 0.0x7.8xhigh 321.4x
ROEbetter than 83% of peers
low -91%15%high 19%
Div yieldbetter than 67% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 1.8%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
TG Tredegar Corporation Common Stock$7.31$1133% below7.8x15.5%5368
MEC Mayville Engineering Company Inc. Common Stock$12.94----6.0%3139
AP Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation Common Stock$7.81----90.9%2239
IIIN Insteel Industries Inc. Common Stock$30.30$3820% below18.4x10.0%4855
SIFG.AS Sif Holding N.V.€2.72----15.6%2652
PROF-B.ST ProfilGruppen AB (publ)kr 114.50--5.6x19.4%5865
TROAX.ST Troax Group AB (publ)kr 145.20kr 59148% above321.4x1.5%4248

Sector report card

Where TG ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Sep 15, 2026
    Tredegar Appoints Cindy Yao as Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
  • Business Wire•Sep 11, 2026
    Tredegar Announces Departure of Kevin Donnelly, Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
  • Business Wire•Sep 4, 2026
    Tredegar Provides Update on One Tredegar Transformation
8 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 20
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-16
View on SEC →
Oct 20
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-16
View on SEC →
Oct 20
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-16
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR