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AP

Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation Common Stock (AP) fair value

Industrials · Metal Fabrication · NYSE · United States
$7.85+0.51%
Market cap $162MNext earnings 2026-11-11Updated Oct 21, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 57% above our fair value
Price
$7.85
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $5.00
Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a loss-making company: Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionAmpco-Pittsburgh Corporation Common Stock (AP)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$8.50
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $7.85 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
39
out of 100
1-year return
+247.3%
Dividend yield
0.00%

Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Ampco-Pittsburgh makes forged and cast rolls for steel and aluminum mills, along with air and liquid processing equipment, and it is a small industrial with a $171M market cap. The case here rests on mill-cycle exposure rather than a structural moat: revenue fell 9.0% and return on equity is deeply negative at -90.9%, so the business is still shrinking and absorbing losses. The positives are margin-related, with an 18.9% gross margin and a 6.4% operating margin showing the operations are recovering at the line level even as the top line contracts. A forward P/E of 29.4 against a trailing P/E of zero means earnings are expected to turn positive, but the multiple is rich for a company with falling sales and a 47/100 score. It merits a deeper look only if the work can establish that the margin recovery is durable and that order books are stabilizing after the decline.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Heavy leverage, negative FCF
    Debt/Equity is 4.24 and free cash flow was $-8.1M. The balance sheet has little room to absorb a further downturn in the business.
  • high
    Revenue shrinking, profits negative
    Revenue fell 9.0% year over year and net margin is -13.8%. The +400% earnings jump is off a depressed base, so it doesn't signal recovery on its own.
  • moderate
    Score down 14 points in 90 days
    The ACCE score fell from 55 to 41 over 90 days, with quality at 22 the weakest component. The deterioration is recent and material.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Analysts' mean price target of $5.00 sits 39.1% below the $7.85 share price, a gap that could close if the market has overreacted to the bad news.
  • Revenue grew at an average of 5.7% a year over the past five years, showing the business has expanded over time despite the recent slowdown.
Why it could disappoint
  • Revenue fell 9.0% year over year, so the business is shrinking at the moment rather than growing.
  • Free cash flow over the last 12 months was negative at -$8M, meaning the company is burning cash rather than generating it for shareholders.
  • Debt is 4.24 times equity, a heavy borrowing load that leaves little room for error if profits keep falling.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 11, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

PRO

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where AP's valuation models land
Price
$7.85
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $5.00
Model
Fair value
Upside
Analyst consensus
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

No analyst coverage yet.
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
-5.0%
1 month
-6.8%
3 months
-4.3%
6 months
-24.2%
YTD
+47.3%
1 year
+247.3%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$8.50first publication$9.34
8 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$6.60$6.78$9.42
5 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$6.78$6.44$9.70
1 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$6.44$6.29$9.00
23 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$6.29$6.14$8.60
20 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$6.14$5.84$8.35
17 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$5.84$6.01$7.79
15 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$6.01$6.11$8.11
12 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$6.11$6.34$8.24
9 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$6.34$6.24$8.68

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth43Value45Quality22Momentum46Total39
Valuation
Trailing P/E
no data
Forward P/E
34.1x
PEG
no data
P/B
5.59x
EV / Revenue
0.7x
Book value/sh
$1.51
Enterprise value
$309M
Profitability
ROE
-90.9%
FCF yield
-5.00%
ROIC
-31.7%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
4.24
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
1.37

Price

+245.8% · 1Y

Ask anything about AP

Answered from Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
ROEbetter than 0% of peers
low -91%-91%high 19%
Div yieldbetter than 83% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 2.4%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
AP Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation Common Stock$7.85----90.9%2239
TG Tredegar Corporation Common Stock$8.03$1126% below7.8x15.5%5368
SIFG.AS Sif Holding N.V.€2.72----15.6%2652
PROF-B.ST ProfilGruppen AB (publ)kr 114.50--5.6x19.4%5865
MEC Mayville Engineering Company Inc. Common Stock$12.94----6.0%3139
HAKI-A.ST HAKI Safety AB (publ)kr 21.00kr 3030% below12.3x6.5%5652
TPCS TechPrecision Corporation Common stock$5.22----15.4%2652

Sector report card

Where AP ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Sep 16, 2026
    Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation to Present at the Sidoti Small-Cap Virtual Investor Conference on September 23, 2026
  • Business Wire•Aug 11, 2026
    Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation Announces Second Quarter 2026 Results
  • Business Wire•Aug 3, 2026
    Ampco-Pittsburgh Schedules Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call
3 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
37 filings of 40
September 2026
Sep 23
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-09-23
View on SEC →
August 2026
Aug 28
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-08-27
View on SEC →
Aug 11
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-08-11
View on SEC →
34 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR