Industrials · Specialty Business Services · Euronext Paris · France
€59.95+6.29%
Market cap €8.2BNext earnings 2026-10-23Updated Oct 22, 2026
Our verdict
Close to our fair value
Price
€59.95
Model fair valueConfidence: good
€58.16
Model range
€22.12 to €91.45
Fair value €58.16
Price €59.95
5 models fit Sodexo S.A. and they disagree: 2 of 5 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Silver61
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionSodexo S.A. (SW.PA)
Fair value (5 models)
€58.16
ACCE price target
€56.20
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
Price used: €59.95 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
3.1% above
-3.0% to fair value
ACCE score
50
out of 100
P/E
18.5x
forward 15.3x
1-year return
+15.2%
Dividend yield
4.75%
Sodexo S.A. in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Sodexo runs contract catering, facilities management and benefits and rewards services (its Pluxee unit covers meal and employee-benefit cards) for corporate, healthcare, education and government clients across more than 50 countries. The structural case rests on sticky, multi-year outsourcing contracts and on the shift by employers and public bodies toward buying integrated food and facilities services rather than running them in-house. Revenue is shrinking at 3.7% and the operating margin of 3.2% is thin, so the thesis hinges on whether volumes and pricing stabilise and margins recover from here. At a forward P/E of 16.8 against a trailing 18.5, the market is pricing in some earnings recovery, which makes this worth a deeper look to test whether that recovery is visible in contract wins, retention and cost discipline.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapse
Earnings fell 56.5% year on year while revenue dropped 3.7%, and the operating margin is only 3.2%. Thin margins mean small cost pressure wipes out profit.
moderate
Leverage elevated
Debt to equity sits at 1.44. Free cash flow of $631M covers it for now, but a weaker earnings year leaves less room to service that debt.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-02-28 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached EUR 631M, and the stock yields 7.6% on that cash flow.
The dividend yield is 4.7%, and the company has reduced its diluted share count by 0.7% in the last fiscal year.
On forward earnings the shares trade at 15.3x, below the 18.6x trailing multiple, suggesting profits are expected to recover.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue shrank 3.7% year over year, a sharp reversal from its 4.5% average annual growth over five years.
The latest quarter missed expectations badly, with earnings per share of 1.77 against 3.79 expected, a 53.3% shortfall.
Debt equals 1.44 times equity, and a net margin of 1.9% and ROIC of 6.2% leave little cushion for that borrowing.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where SW.PA's valuation models land
Price
€59.95
Model fair value
€58.16
Model range
€22.12 to €91.45
Fair value €58.16
Price €59.95
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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Analysts
Wall Street consensus
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