3 models fit Aramark Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Silver66
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionAramark Common Stock (ARMK)
Fair value (3 models)
$25.25
ACCE price target
$54.20
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST; previously $26.15 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST.
Price used: $52.56 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
108.2% above
-52.0% to fair value
ACCE score
63
out of 100
Analysts
88% buy
16 covering
P/E
36.8x
forward 18.7x
1-year return
+31.8%
Dividend yield
0.91%
Aramark Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Aramark runs food and facilities services for stadiums, universities, hospitals and corporate campuses, pairing on-site dining and concessions with uniform rental and facility management contracts. The moat is the contract base itself: multi-year agreements with sports venues and education clients are costly to switch and give the company recurring volume it can plan around. Revenue growth of 9.3% is running well ahead of what the core food-service business would deliver on its own, which points to strength in both new contract wins and pricing. The forward P/E of 19.7 against a trailing 38.7 says earnings are expected to recover sharply from a depressed base, so the debate is whether margins can rebuild from a 4.4% operating margin. The stock carries no index membership at a $14.6B market cap, which leaves room for re-rating if the margin story gets proven out, though it also means the name sits outside the passive flows that support larger peers. Worth a deeper look to test whether the margin recovery is contracted or still hoped for.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Heavy leverage
Debt/Equity of 1.82 leaves little cushion if operating margin of 4.4% slips, and net margin of 1.9% means thin room to absorb a bad year.
moderate
Valuation stretched on earnings
Trailing P/E of 36.7 against a forward P/E of 18.7 implies earnings must keep growing sharply; the stock trades 108.2% above the model fair value of $25.25.
moderate
Recent sequential slowdown
Revenue fell 4.3% quarter-on-quarter even though year-on-year revenue grew 9.3%, suggesting momentum has cooled since the last quarter.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 9.3% over the past year, ahead of its 7.6% average annual pace across the last five years.
Analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, with 14 of 16 covering it, and their mean price target sits 30.6% above the share price.
Earnings per share beat expectations, coming in at 0.52 against 0.48 expected, an 8.3% surprise.
Why it could disappoint
The shares trade 108.2% above the model fair value of $25.25, and the consensus of valuation models points lower.
Return on invested capital is only 3.0%, and net margin is 1.9%, so the business earns thin returns on the capital it uses.
Debt to equity stands at 1.82, so the balance sheet carries heavy borrowing relative to shareholder capital.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 16, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where ARMK's valuation models land
Price
$52.56
Model fair value
$25.25
Model range
$17.15 to $40.48
Fair value $25.25
Price $52.56
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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