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STRL
ACCE-researched

Sterling Infrastructure Inc. Common Stock (STRL) fair value

Industrials · Engineering & Construction · NASDAQ · United States
$355.30-4.70%
Market cap $10.9BNext earnings 2026-10-28Updated Oct 23, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 23% above our fair value
Price
$355.30
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$289
Model range
$191 to $434
Fair value $289
Price $355
3 models fit Sterling Infrastructure Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionSterling Infrastructure Inc. Common Stock (STRL)
Fair value (3 models)
$289
ACCE price target
$414
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 10:03 CEST; previously $305 since 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $559 since 26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: $355 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
23.1% above
-18.8% to fair value
ACCE score
64
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
8 covering
P/E
25.6x
forward 13.8x
1-year return
+0.4%
Dividend yield
0.00%

Sterling Infrastructure Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Sterling Infrastructure builds the site work and foundations that data centers, semiconductor fabs and large-scale water and transport projects need before anything else goes up, through its E&I (electrical and utility) and transportation segments. Its moat is less a technology than a dense network of specialty crews and permits in markets where contractors are scarce and project schedules are unforgiving, which lets it win repeat work and price it with reasonable discipline. The near-term driver is the buildout of AI and cloud data center capacity, which pulls forward demand for exactly the civil and electrical scopes Sterling performs. Revenue growth of 90.1% and a 20.1% operating margin suggest the company is converting that demand into profit rather than just volume. At 19.6 times forward earnings against a trailing 35.9, the market is pricing in a sharp earnings step-up, so the question for a PM is whether backlog and margin durability support that expectation. The name merits a deeper look on the sustainability of growth, not on the headline multiple.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 14, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Valuation disconnect with growth
    P/E 37.0 on trailing earnings despite 116.5% YoY growth and forward P/E 20.2 suggests market pricing in significant deceleration. EV/EBITDA 22.1 is elevated for industrials.
  • moderate
    Insider selling pressure
    $2.22M in sales vs $0 buys over last 10 disclosures. Insider ownership at +2.3% is minimal; selling without offsetting purchases warrants monitoring.
  • moderate
    Valuation score collapse
    V-score 43/100 is the weakest component of ACCE.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue surged 90.1% year over year with net margin at 12.5%, showing the company scales profitably at high growth rates.
  • Return on equity of 40.0% and ROIC of 17.0% demonstrate capital is deployed far more efficiently than peers require.
Why it could disappoint
  • Trailing P/E of 37.0x is steep; the forward P/E of 20.2x assumes earnings step-up that may not hold if growth normalizes.
  • Free cash flow yield of only 2.2% on $349M annual cash generation leaves little margin for error if capex cycles shift.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Oct 28, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where STRL's valuation models land
Price
$355.30
Model fair value
$289
Model range
$191 to $434
Fair value $289
Price $355
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish100% buy · 8 covering analysts
● Strong buy 8● Buy 0● Hold 0● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
0 buys · 3 sells
Since May 18, 2026, 1 member
Average delay
21 days
From trade to public filing
Full trade list on ProDo politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
-16.3%
1 month
-30.6%
3 months
-46.2%
6 months
-28.5%
YTD
+16.0%
1 year
+0.4%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
23 Oct 2026, 10:03 CESTFair value$289$305$373
23 Oct 2026, 01:52 CESTACCE price target$414$559$373
18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publication$424
18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CESTFair value$305$511$424
14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$511$488$501
10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$488$500$518
6 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$500$518$533
4 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$518$493$533
30 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$493$503$498
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$503$513$512

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth100Value47Quality77Momentum32Total64
Valuation
Trailing P/E
25.6x
Forward P/E
13.8x
PEG
0.26
P/B
11.64x
EV / Revenue
4.6x
Book value/sh
$44.22
Enterprise value
$15.7B
Profitability
ROE
40.0%
FCF yield
2.87%
ROIC
16.3%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.32
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
1.86

Price

-6.3% · 1Y

Ask anything about STRL

Answered from Sterling Infrastructure Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 0% of peers
low 10.8x25.6xhigh 25.6x
ROEbetter than 100% of peers
low 11%40%high 40%
Div yieldbetter than 0% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 3.8%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
STRL Sterling Infrastructure Inc. Common Stock$355.30$28923% above25.6x40.0%7764
SKA-B.ST Skanska AB (publ)kr 267.20kr 21325% above16.9x11.1%4862
1801.T Taisei Corporation¥11170.00--11.2x-6059
1802.T Obayashi Corporation¥2907.00--11.8x16.2%5665
1803.T Shimizu Corporation¥2011.00--10.8x17.6%5256
1812.T Kajima Corporation¥4775.00--12.6x-4544
1944.T Kinden Corporation¥6325.00¥67096% below16.4x14.6%6060

Sector report card

Where STRL ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • PR Newswire•Oct 15, 2026
    Sterling Schedules 2026 Third Quarter Release and Conference Call
  • PR Newswire•Sep 4, 2026
    Sterling to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences
  • PR Newswire•Aug 27, 2026
    Raiven Expands Board with Building Trades Entrepreneur Ray Waddell
2 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 7
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-05
View on SEC →
Oct 5
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-10-05
View on SEC →
September 2026
Sep 23
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-21
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR