Industrials · Engineering & Construction · TSE · Japan
¥2917.50+0.36%
Market cap ¥2.01TNext earnings 2026-11-13Updated Oct 24, 2026 · valuation updating
Our verdict
No fair value
We are missing the financial data our models need for this company. It will appear once the data arrives.
Not valued: there are no financial statements on file yet.
ACCE opinionObayashi Corporation (1802.T)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
¥3079
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Price used: ¥2918 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 08:30 CEST.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
65
out of 100
P/E
11.8x
forward 21.1x
1-year return
+13.3%
Dividend yield
3.23%
Obayashi Corporation in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Obayashi is one of Japan's big four general contractors, building offices, data centres, hospitals and civil infrastructure, with a sizeable overseas construction and development business in the US and Southeast Asia. Its moat is scale and a long record on large, complex projects, which matters when clients and public tenders favour contractors with the balance sheet and track record to carry multi-year work. Revenue growth of 19.0% is the headline, and the mix of data centre and domestic infrastructure demand, alongside Japan's ongoing construction backlog, is the likely driver behind it, though the data here does not break that out. The stock looks interesting on earnings power: a trailing P/E of 11.8 is well below the forward P/E of 21.1, which implies the market expects earnings to compress from current levels, so the question for a deeper look is whether that expectation is right. A 5.2% operating margin on a 14.4% gross margin leaves little room for cost overruns, and the 16.2% ROE is respectable but reflects a low-margin, asset-light-leaning model rather than a high-return franchise.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Quarterly earnings sharply down
Growth looks strong year on year (earnings +122.3%), but QoQ is -52.6%, so the latest quarter fell well short of the prior one. Worth checking whether the EPS beat of +136.0% reflects a one-off.
moderate
Valuation rests on forward earnings
Trailing P/E is 11.8, but forward P/E is 21.1, implying earnings are expected to decline. The stock trades 5.2% below the ACCE price target of ¥3079.00, which depends on that forecast.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 19.0% year over year, following a 5-year average of 23.1% per year, showing sustained expansion.
Analysts' mean price target of JPY 3777.78 sits 30.0% above the current share price, suggesting room for re-rating.
Earnings per share beat expectations by 136.0%, with 67.83 reported against 28.74 expected, and the stock pays a 3.2% dividend yield.
Why it could disappoint
The forward P/E of 21.1x is well above the trailing 11.8x, implying analysts expect earnings to fall after the recent surge.
Net margin of 7.3% is thin, so modest cost pressure could erase profit quickly despite strong sales growth.
Return on equity of 16.2% is solid but the stock trades at 5.2% {below} the ACCE price target of ¥3079.00, so the upside case is already partly priced in.
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