Kajima Corporation (1812.T) fair value

ACCE thesis

Kajima is one of Japan's big five general contractors, building office towers, data centres, hospitals and civil infrastructure, with a sizeable overseas construction and property development arm. Its edge rests on scale, a long record of large-project execution and an order book that gives visibility on revenue for several years. Revenue fell 1.5% in the latest period, so the near-term story depends on whether margin improvement from better project selection and cost pass-through can offset flat sales. The stock trades at 12.5 times trailing earnings and 17.9 times forward, a sign the market expects earnings to fall before they recover, so the forward multiple needs checking against the company's margin guidance. A 6.3% operating margin and 14.2% gross margin are thin for a contractor with a 2.21 trillion yen market cap, which makes execution on the existing backlog the number to watch. The company is not in any major index, which may partly explain the valuation, and it is worth a deeper look at order intake and overseas project margins before deciding if the discount is earned.