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SPCE
ACCE-researched

Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. Common Stock (SPCE) fair value

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense · NYSE · United States
$2.46+1.65%
Market cap $367MNext earnings 2026-11-12Updated Oct 24, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 30% below our fair value
Price
$2.46
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $3.51
Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a pre-revenue company: Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionVirgin Galactic Holdings Inc. Common Stock (SPCE)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
$2.00
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $3.00 since 1 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $2.46 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
14
out of 100
Analysts
29% buy
7 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 0.0x
1-year return
-38.0%
Dividend yield
0.00%

Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
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OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Virgin Galactic is developing suborbital spaceflights for paying passengers, with a new generation of spaceships planned. It has a recognised brand, but it has so far had little revenue from flights. The catalyst is the launch of commercial service with the new Delta class vehicles. Revenue fell 67.0% and the operating margin is -48452.2%, so the company depends on its cash holdings and further funding.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 14, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • severe
    Massive operating losses and negative cash flow
    Operating margin -48452%, FCF -$438M, gross margin -9106%. Company is burning cash at an unsustainable rate with no path to profitability visible.
  • severe
    Revenue collapse and deteriorating momentum
    Revenue down 67% YoY, down 27% QoQ. Five-year CAGR of 45% masks recent sharp deceleration toward zero demand.
  • high
    Elevated leverage with negative equity returns
    Debt/Equity 1.37, ROE -75%. Company is highly leveraged while destroying shareholder value, limiting financial flexibility.
  • high
    High short interest amid operational distress
    Short interest 22.4% of float. Combined with 67% revenue decline and massive losses, suggests market skepticism about viability.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • The company has delivered 45.4% average annual revenue growth over five years despite recent setbacks.
  • Latest earnings beat expectations by 3.3%, showing operational discipline in a transition phase.
Why it could disappoint
  • Revenue collapsed 67.0% year over year with no clear path to profitability or positive cash flow.
  • Share count doubled with a 105.3% increase last fiscal year, heavily diluting existing shareholders.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 12, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where SPCE's valuation models land
Price
$2.46
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $3.51
Model
Fair value
Upside
Analyst consensus
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bearish29% buy · 7 covering analysts
● Strong buy 2● Buy 0● Hold 4● Sell 0● Strong sell 1
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+1.2%
1 month
-21.2%
3 months
-1.2%
6 months
-4.7%
YTD
-23.4%
1 year
-38.0%

SEC filings

Recent ACCE blog coverage

  • $SPCE ACCE Score Jumps 12 Points to 34 - What Shifted
    Virgin Galactic's ACCE composite score moved from 22 to 34. Here's what likely drove the +12 delta and what the data still says about the risks.
    2026-06-01

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CESTACCE price target$2.00$3.00$2.43
1 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$3.00first publication$3.04

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth7Value10Quality22Momentum17Total14
Valuation
Trailing P/E
0.0x
Forward P/E
0.0x
PEG
no data
P/B
1.19x
EV / Revenue
421.0x
Book value/sh
$2.80
Enterprise value
$437M
Profitability
ROE
-75.1%
FCF yield
-119.44%
ROIC
-35.2%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
1.37
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
2.87

Price

-38.5% · 1Y

Ask anything about SPCE

Answered from Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 100% of peers
low 0.0x0.0xhigh 71.6x
ROEbetter than 0% of peers
low -75%-75%high 29%
Div yieldbetter than 0% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 1.4%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
SPCE Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. Common Stock$2.46----75.1%2214
COCHINSHIP.NS Cochin Shipyard Limited₹1139.90--44.1x-7534
BDL.NS Bharat Dynamics Limited₹1017.50--71.6x-8053
MAZDOCK.NS Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited₹1860.00₹116759% above27.1x28.8%8449
BWXT BWX Technologies Inc. Common Stock$127.19$60112% above33.0x28.3%6047
EMBJ Embraer S.A. Common Stock$70.84$6312% above28.7x12.2%5767
TXT Textron Inc. Common Stock$76.83$9317% below14.5x12.1%6050

Sector report card

Where SPCE ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Oct 14, 2026
    Virgin Galactic and the Air Force Research Laboratory Enter Agreement to Advance Space Weather Science
  • PR Newswire•Sep 2, 2026
    Helfie AI Appoints John Rego as Chief Financial Officer
  • Business Wire•Aug 18, 2026
    Virgin Galactic Receives Final Approval by the Court to Settle Derivative Claims With No Findings of Wrongdoing
4 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 6
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-05
View on SEC →
Oct 6
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-05
View on SEC →
Oct 6
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-05
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR