3 models fit SIG Group AG and they partly agree: 2 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionSIG Group AG (SIGN.SW)
Fair value (3 models)
CHF 10.94
ACCE price target
CHF 14.30
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
Price used: CHF 13.65 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
24.7% above
-19.8% to fair value
ACCE score
57
out of 100
1-year return
+56.2%
Dividend yield
0.00%
SIG Group AG in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
SIG Group makes aseptic carton packaging systems and the cartons themselves, mainly for dairy, juice and plant-based beverages, so its revenue is tied to customers' filling volumes and to long-term equipment and consumables contracts. The moat is real but narrow: once a dairy or beverage brand has validated a SIG filling line, switching costs are high, and the company's gross margin of 25.6% and operating margin of 15.9% reflect that pricing power. Revenue is currently shrinking by 1.2% and return on equity is slightly negative at -1.5%, so the thesis rests on margins holding while volumes stabilise. At a forward P/E of 17.9 on a 5.2bn CHF market cap, the stock is priced for a recovery in top-line growth that the reported numbers do not yet show. The question for a deeper look is whether order intake and the cartons business are turning before the next reporting cycle.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Revenue shrinking despite profit jump
Revenue fell 1.2% year on year while earnings rose 47.0%, so the profit gain rests on margins and cost actions rather than volume. Net margin is still negative at -1.4%, and ROE is -1.5%.
moderate
Leverage and valuation stretch
Debt to equity sits at 0.94 and EV/EBITDA is 17.8, leaving little room for a further revenue slowdown. The price of CHF 13.65 rests on the forward P/E of 20.2 holding up.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last 12 months reached EUR 235M, showing the business still turns sales into cash.
Revenue grew 12.5% per year on average over five years, a longer record of expansion than the latest year.
Analysts' mean price target of CHF 16.53 sits 19.8% above the current share price.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 1.2% in the latest year, breaking a five-year record of strong growth.
The company posted a net loss, with a net margin of -1.4% and return on equity of -1.5%.
Earnings per share missed expectations by 12.0%, coming in at 0.22 against 0.25 expected.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Mar 2, 2027
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where SIGN.SW's valuation models land
Price
CHF 13.65
Model fair value
CHF 10.94
Model range
CHF 8.13 to CHF 12.62
Fair value CHF 10.94
Price CHF 13.65
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
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P/E comparison
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