4 models fit Greif Inc. Class A Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Silver60
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionGreif Inc. Class A Common Stock (GEF)
Fair value (4 models)
$82.27
ACCE price target
$88.00
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST; previously $83.13 since 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $82.27 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
0.0% above
0.0% to fair value
ACCE score
70
out of 100
Analysts
17% buy
6 covering
P/E
37.2x
forward 9.3x
1-year return
+35.9%
Dividend yield
4.98%
Greif Inc. Class A Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
Greif makes industrial packaging, mainly steel and plastic drums, fibre drums, intermediate bulk containers and corrugated packaging sold into chemicals, food and energy end markets. Its moat is the scale and logistics network of a company that can reconcile and return containers across thousands of customer sites, which rivals find hard to replicate quickly. The near-term driver is margin recovery: operating margin of 10.6% sits on a 22.5% gross margin, and the business has spent the last cycle passing through resin and steel cost swings. The stock looks expensive on trailing earnings at 36.4 times, but the forward multiple of 9.3 times implies the market is pricing a sharp earnings rebound, which makes the margin trajectory the question to test. Revenue growth of 3.5% and a 7.2% ROE are modest, so the case rests on whether the forward earnings estimate holds.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Negative free cash flow
FCF is -$85.2M despite reported net margin of 24.7% and earnings up 43.4% YoY. Reported profits are not converting to cash, which is worth checking against working capital and capex before relying on the earnings growth.
moderate
Five-year revenue shrinking
The 5-year revenue CAGR is -1.0%, while the latest year shows +3.5%. One year of growth does not yet offset a multi-year decline, so the recovery needs to persist to be credible.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-04-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Forward earnings look cheap at 9.3x against a sector median of 17.8x, and the latest earnings beat expectations by 45.3%.
Return on invested capital of 15.4% shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
The dividend yield of 5.2% pays shareholders while the company works through its cash flow issues.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -$85M, so the business is not yet turning profit into cash.
Trailing earnings multiple of 37.2x looks expensive, and return on equity of 7.2% is modest for the risk taken.
Five-year average revenue growth of -1.0% per year suggests the top line has been shrinking over time.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 3, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where GEF's valuation models land
Price
$82.27
Model fair value
$82.27
Model range
$51.01 to $142
Fair value $82.27
Price $82.27
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores