2 models fit Peloton Interactive Inc. Class A Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is below every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Bronze44
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Discounted cash flow.
ACCE opinionPeloton Interactive Inc. Class A Common Stock (PTON)
Fair value (2 models)
$8.45
ACCE price target
$5.60
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 15:06 CEST; previously $7.17 since 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 15:06 CEST.
Price used: $5.37 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
36.5% below
+57.4% to fair value
ACCE score
52
out of 100
Analysts
40% buy
20 covering
P/E
36.4x
forward 4.3x
1-year return
-28.4%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Peloton Interactive Inc. Class A Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Peloton sells connected fitness hardware, the Bike and Tread, bundled with a subscription to its streaming classes, and it earns recurring revenue from that subscription base. Its moat is the content library and instructor brand built over more than a decade, which sustains a 52.6% gross margin and gives it a loyal installed base to sell into. The near-term swing factor is cost discipline: operating margin of 14.4% is a sharp turn from the losses of recent years, and the business now needs to show that it can hold that margin while revenue stays roughly flat, with revenue growth at just 0.1%. The stock looks inexpensive on forward earnings at 4.3 times against a trailing 38.1, but the negative ROE of -847.3% reflects a thin equity base, so the valuation hinges on whether the margin improvement is durable. The score of 53 out of 100 and the absence of index membership suggest the market is still unconvinced, which makes this worth a deeper look at churn, subscriber trends and free cash flow.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Heavy short interest
Short interest sits at 16.1% of shares outstanding, meaning a meaningful minority of holders are betting on further decline despite the stock trading near $5.37.
high
Revenue shrinking over five years
Revenue has compounded at -9.5% over five years and grew just 0.1% year over year, so top-line stability rests on margin repair rather than demand growth.
moderate
Negative book equity
Debt to equity of -12.24 and ROE of -847.3% reflect a shrunken equity base, which limits balance sheet flexibility even though free cash flow is $378M.
moderate
Insider selling without buying
Insiders recorded $0.97M in sales and no purchases across the last 10 disclosed transactions, a weak signal of management conviction.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 21, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $378M, so the business generates real cash despite flat sales.
The latest quarter beat expectations, with earnings per share of 0.13 against 0.11 expected, an 18.2% surprise.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue grew just 0.1% over the last year and has shrunk 9.5% a year on average over five years.
Return on equity sits at -847.3% and debt to equity is -12.24, so the balance sheet offers little cushion.
The diluted share count rose 33.6% last fiscal year, which dilutes existing owners' stake in future profits.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where PTON's valuation models land
Price
$5.37
Model fair value
$8.45
Model range
$5.73 to $9.81
Fair value $8.45
Price $5.37
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores