2 models fit Polaris Inc. Common Stock and they agree: 2 of 2 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Silver60
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Discounted cash flow.
ACCE opinionPolaris Inc. Common Stock (PII)
Fair value (2 models)
$60.90
ACCE price target
$55.00
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CEST; previously $59.86 since 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $54.82 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
10.0% below
+11.1% to fair value
ACCE score
39
out of 100
Analysts
22% buy
18 covering
1-year return
-19.5%
Dividend yield
4.80%
Polaris Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Polaris makes off-road and on-road powersports vehicles, including ATVs, side-by-sides, snowmobiles, motorcycles and the Indian and Slingshot brands, sold through independent dealers. The company is the sort of cyclical consumer name where a recovery in discretionary spending matters more than any single product cycle. Revenue growth of 8.8% and a forward P/E of 13.1 suggest the market is pricing in a steadier earnings path than the trailing figures show, since the trailing P/E is zero and ROE is negative at -25.6%. A 7.2% operating margin against a 21.9% gross margin leaves little room for error if dealer inventory builds again, so the thesis rests on margin repair rather than top-line growth. The score of 38/100 and absence from any index argue for treating this as a deeper-look candidate, not a conclusion.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapse
Earnings are down 89.6% year over year while revenue grew 8.8%, and the trailing P/E shows 0.0 with net margin at -3.5%. Profit is not keeping pace with sales.
high
Leverage and negative ROE
Debt to equity sits at 1.86 and ROE is -25.6%, so the equity base is shrinking while borrowings stay heavy. Free cash flow of $558M gives some cushion but limits flexibility.
moderate
Heavy short interest
Short interest is 14.1% of float, which means a meaningful group of investors is betting on further declines. Insiders reported no buys or sales in the last 10 disclosures.
moderate
Score down sharply
The ACCE score fell 10 points over 90 days, from 48 to 38, with quality at 26 and momentum at 25. The stock trades 0.3% below the ACCE price target of $55.00 and 10.0% below the model fair value of $60.90.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $558M, a strong cash base for a company at this size.
At a forward P/E of 13.1x, Polaris trades below the sector median of 17.6x, which many buyers would see as a discount.
Revenue grew 8.8% over the last year, well ahead of its 0.4% average annual pace over five years.
Why it could disappoint
Return on equity of -25.6% and return on invested capital of -16.1% show the business is currently destroying shareholder value.
Debt to equity of 1.86 leaves the balance sheet heavily geared, so a downturn would hit shareholders hard.
The price implies almost no cash flow growth over five years, at +0.1% a year, so the market is not paying for a recovery.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 27, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where PII's valuation models land
Price
$54.82
Model fair value
$60.90
Model range
$54.80 to $67.01
Fair value $60.90
Price $54.82
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores