4 models fit Harley-Davidson Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Silver78
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionHarley-Davidson Inc. Common Stock (HOG)
Fair value (4 models)
$50.24
ACCE price target
$26.00
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $51.14 since 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $28.96 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
42.4% below
+73.5% to fair value
ACCE score
54
out of 100
Analysts
40% buy
15 covering
P/E
15.9x
forward 14.5x
1-year return
+4.8%
Dividend yield
2.58%
Harley-Davidson Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Harley-Davidson makes heavyweight motorcycles, including the Touring and Softail lines, along with LiveWire electric bikes and branded apparel, and it finances a large share of its own retail sales through HDFS. The moat is the brand and the dealer network, which still earns pricing power and high-margin parts and accessories, but that edge has not yet translated into growth: revenue is down 5.9%, and the 5.6% operating margin leaves little room for error. The near-term swing factor is whether the company can stabilise volumes in the core U.S. heavyweight segment and shift its cost base as tariffs and weak retail demand weigh on the top line. At 15.2x trailing and 12.3x forward earnings the stock is priced for a recovery, but a 6.1% ROE and a shrinking top line mean the case rests on margin repair being credible, which is what the deeper look needs to test.