3 models fit Paradox Interactive AB (publ) and they partly agree: 2 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionParadox Interactive AB (publ) (PDX.ST)
Fair value (3 models)
kr 96.45
ACCE price target
kr 151
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 22 Oct 2026, 14:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:53 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 14:04 CEST.
Price used: kr 136 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
41.3% above
-29.2% to fair value
ACCE score
61
out of 100
P/E
114.5x
forward 20.8x
1-year return
-21.7%
Dividend yield
3.59%
Paradox Interactive AB (publ) in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Paradox Interactive is a Stockholm-listed developer and publisher of strategy and grand-strategy PC and console games, best known for the Europa Universalis, Crusader Kings, Stellaris and Victoria franchises. Its edge is a long-running, deep-simulation catalogue with a loyal, mod-driven player base that keeps earning revenue from expansions and updates years after launch, which is why the company runs a 34.2% operating margin. Revenue growth of 14.2% is the headline, and the forward P/E of 21.3 against a trailing 117.1 suggests earnings are expected to recover sharply from a depressed base, so the question for a PM is whether that recovery is visible in new releases and the expansion cadence. The trailing ROE of 5.2% and the gap between trailing and forward multiples both point to a year of lower reported profit, so the deeper look should start with the release calendar and what drove the earnings trough.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Rich trailing valuation
Trailing P/E of 121.5 sits well above the forward P/E of 28.4, and the price trades 41.3% above the model fair value of kr 96.45, so the stock needs earnings growth to hold up.
moderate
Thin ROE despite high margins
Operating margin of 34.2% converts into only a 5.2% ROE and 5.7% net margin, suggesting heavy costs below operating profit or a large equity base that dilutes returns.
moderate
Slow five-year revenue growth
Revenue growth of 14.2% this year compares with a 5-year revenue CAGR of just 4.1%, so the recent acceleration may not yet be a durable trend.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 14.2% over the past year, well ahead of the company's 4.1% average annual pace over five years.
Debt is small against equity, at 0.07 to one, so the balance sheet carries little financial risk.
Analysts' mean price target of SEK 156.40 sits 14.0% above the current share price.
Why it could disappoint
The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 121.5x and a forward P/E of 28.4x, well above the sector median forward P/E of 16.5x.
The price trades 41.3% above the model fair value of kr 96.45, and three of four valuation models in the consensus point to that lower level.
Earnings per share missed expectations by 11.9%, with 1.41 reported against 1.60 expected, and return on equity is only 5.2%.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where PDX.ST's valuation models land
Price
kr 136.30
Model fair value
kr 96.45
Model range
kr 84.93 to kr 112
Fair value kr 96.45
Price kr 136
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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