3 models fit Modern Times Group MTG AB and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Bronze45
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionModern Times Group MTG AB (MTG-B.ST)
Fair value (3 models)
kr 156
ACCE price target
kr 127
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 22 Oct 2026, 14:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 14:04 CEST.
Price used: kr 119 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
23.6% below
+30.9% to fair value
ACCE score
60
out of 100
P/E
83.8x
forward 12.7x
1-year return
-5.6%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Modern Times Group MTG AB in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Modern Times Group owns Sweden's Nordic gaming studios and the Viaplay streaming and pay-TV business, with revenue of about 1.9% growth and a gross margin of 67.5% signalling a high-margin content and subscription mix. Its position rests on owning game franchises and a premium Nordic streaming footprint, though a 1.5% ROE shows little of that value reaching shareholders yet. The near-term story is margin repair: an operating margin of 10.7% leaves room for improvement if the streaming segment keeps trimming losses and the studios sustain their hit cadence. The stock looks interesting now because the trailing P/E of 84.6 sits far above the forward P/E of 12.8, meaning earnings are expected to rise sharply from a depressed base, which is exactly what a deeper look should test. The gap between those two multiples is the first thing to verify.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Thin headline earnings
Net margin is 1.4% and ROE 1.5%, while P/E sits at 82.7. Earnings jumped 110.5% off a low base, so the trailing multiple looks stretched on profits that remain small.
moderate
Revenue growth slowing
Revenue grew only 1.9% year on year, far below the 23.7% five-year CAGR, so the growth story has cooled sharply.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached SEK 1.5B, and the stock offers a 10.8% free cash flow yield.
Analysts' mean price target of SEK 166.25 sits 44.8% above the current share price.
The company trimmed its diluted share count by 3.3% last fiscal year, lifting each shareholder's slice of earnings.
Why it could disappoint
Trailing earnings multiple of 82.7x shows profits are thin, even though the forward multiple looks far cheaper at 10.0x.
Return on invested capital is negative at -0.4%, meaning the money tied up in the business is not earning its cost.
Net margin of just 1.4% and return on equity of 1.5% leave very little cushion if revenue stops growing.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where MTG-B.ST's valuation models land
Price
kr 119.00
Model fair value
kr 156
Model range
kr 71.90 to kr 264
Fair value kr 156
Price kr 119
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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