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Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison.
ACCE opinionPetroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrobras ADS (PBR)
Fair value (5 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$27.00
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $25.00 since 17 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $26.16 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
96
out of 100
Analysts
79% buy
14 covering
P/E
6.5x
forward 5.4x
1-year return
+120.9%
Dividend yield
14.29%
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrobras ADS in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Petrobras operates Brazil's largest crude oil production system, refining network, and downstream fuel distribution, generating roughly 2.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. The company benefits from low-cost pre-salt offshore fields with breakeven costs below $35 per barrel, a structural advantage that persists across commodity cycles. Near-term cash generation is accelerating as Brent crude remains elevated and the company completes its divestiture program, freeing capital for shareholder returns. Trading at a forward PE of 5.4 with an ROE of 30.3% and operating margins of 44.7%, Petrobras is priced as a distressed cyclical despite owning assets that generate returns well above its cost of capital even at $50 oil. The stock has no index membership, leaving it largely absent from passive flows and creating a structural discount to integrated peers trading at 8-10x forward earnings.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Commodity price dependency
Oil & gas integrated major with 42% revenue growth and 97% earnings growth YoY. Extreme sensitivity to crude prices; sustainability unclear if energy markets soften.
moderate
State ownership concentration risk
Brazilian state-controlled enterprise. Political and policy risk not fully captured in valuation. Dividend policy and capital allocation subject to government priorities.
moderate
Score volatility
ACCE score jumped 15 points in 90 days (76 to 91). Rapid re-rating suggests prior undervaluation or recent data shift; verify sustainability of earnings beat.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-09 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
PBR trades at 6.4x trailing earnings with a 14.8% dividend yield, offering exceptional value.
The company generated BRL 16.7B in free cash flow last year while maintaining a stable share count.
Net margin of 24.3% and ROE of 30.3% demonstrate pricing power and efficient capital deployment.
Why it could disappoint
Analyst consensus price target of $23.31 sits 7.9% below the current $25.30 share price.
Debt to equity of 0.92 leaves limited cushion if Brent crude prices fall sharply.
Free cash flow yield of only 2.0% is thin relative to the 14.8% dividend, suggesting sustainability risk.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 10, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where PBR's valuation models land
Price
$26.16
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $7.73
Model
Fair value
Upside
P/E comparison
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