4 models fit TotalEnergies SE Ordinary Shares and they partly agree: 2 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionTotalEnergies SE Ordinary Shares (TTE)
Fair value (4 models)
$82.81
ACCE price target
$95.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $113 since 4 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 17 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $92.78 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
12.0% above
-10.7% to fair value
ACCE score
80
out of 100
Analysts
50% buy
10 covering
P/E
11.3x
forward 8.8x
1-year return
+48.3%
Dividend yield
4.45%
TotalEnergies SE Ordinary Shares in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
TotalEnergies operates integrated oil and gas production across the North Sea, Africa, and the Middle East, with downstream refining and marketing operations and a growing renewables portfolio including solar and wind assets. The company benefits from long-term contracts on LNG exports from Mozambique and Papua New Guinea that lock in volumes at inflation-adjusted prices, providing revenue stability through commodity cycles. Completion of the Mozambique LNG Phase 1 project in 2024 adds 3.4 million tonnes of annual export capacity, driving production growth and cash generation over the next five years. The stock trades at 8.0x forward earnings despite a 14.5% return on equity and 12.8% operating margin, a valuation gap that reflects energy sector cyclicality rather than fundamental weakness. With oil prices near $80 per barrel and the company generating substantial free cash flow, the combination of contracted LNG growth, disciplined capital allocation, and a 4% dividend yield creates an asymmetric risk-reward for a concentrated portfolio.