Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST; previously $115 since 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: $132 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
15.9% above
-13.7% to fair value
ACCE score
51
out of 100
Analysts
61% buy
18 covering
P/E
15.1x
forward 9.4x
1-year return
-5.9%
Dividend yield
1.70%
Oshkosh Corporation (Holding Company)Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
Oshkosh builds specialty access equipment (JLG aerial work platforms), defense vehicles including the Joint Light Tactical Vehicle and Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles, and Pierce fire trucks and refuse collection vehicles. Its edge sits in the defense franchise, where multi-year production contracts give unusual visibility on revenue for an industrial, and in JLG's installed base of rental fleets that drives recurring parts and service demand. Near-term the story turns on whether the Access segment recovers from the 2023-24 destocking as rental fleet utilization normalizes, which would lift margins from a current 8.4% operating level. Revenue growing 6.7% against a forward P/E of 9.4 versus a trailing 14.7 implies the market expects earnings to step up materially, and that gap is the question worth testing. The 12.4% ROE and a stock with no index membership suggest the name is under-owned relative to its defense and cyclical exposure, but the 15.9% gross margin leaves little room for cost slippage, so the thesis rests on mix and volume rather than pricing.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Earnings declining despite revenue growth
Revenue grew 6.7% year over year, but earnings fell 7.6%, so profit is not keeping pace with sales. Net margin of 5.2% leaves little room for further squeeze.
moderate
Sharp quarter-on-quarter drop
Quarter-on-quarter growth came in at -13.8%, a steep sequential decline that the annual figures alone do not show.
moderate
Score down five points in 90 days
The ACCE score fell from 55 to 50 over 90 days, with the momentum sub-score at 25 and growth at 28, both weak readings.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-13 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $618M, and the stock yields 7.9% on that cash flow.
Analysts rate the shares Buy or Strong Buy at 61% (11 of 18), and their mean price target sits 28.7% above the current price.
Earnings per share beat expectations by 10.4% at 2.87 against 2.60 expected, and the stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.4x.
Why it could disappoint
The stock trades 15.9% above the model fair value of $113.64, so the models in the consensus do not support today's price.
Return on invested capital is 8.7% and the price implies just 6.2% yearly cash flow growth over five years, so the market is already pricing in modest expectations.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where OSK's valuation models land
Price
$131.70
Model fair value
$114
Model range
$49.59 to $225
Fair value $114
Price $132
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores