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FSS

Federal Signal Corporation Common Stock (FSS) fair value

Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · NYSE · United States
$113.23-2.00%
Market cap $7.1BNext earnings 2026-10-29Updated Oct 19, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 44% above our fair value
Price
$113.23
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$78.80
Model range
$45.20 to $123
Fair value $78.80
Price $113
4 models fit Federal Signal Corporation Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze47
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionFederal Signal Corporation Common Stock (FSS)
Fair value (4 models)
$78.80
ACCE price target
$114
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CEST; previously $100 since 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CEST.
Price used: $113 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
43.7% above
-30.4% to fair value
ACCE score
63
out of 100
Analysts
86% buy
7 covering
P/E
25.2x
forward 19.8x
1-year return
-9.5%
Dividend yield
0.50%

Federal Signal Corporation Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Federal Signal makes street sweepers, vacuum trucks, hydro-excavators, and sirens and warning systems for municipal and emergency-services customers, which gives it a revenue base tied to public infrastructure budgets rather than private construction cycles. The company's edge is installed-base and service economics in specialty municipal vehicles, where buyers value uptime and dealer support enough that replacement demand is sticky. Revenue growth of 18.7% and a 20.6% return on equity show the business compounding faster than most industrial peers of its size. The stock trades at 24.5 times trailing earnings and 19.8 times forward, so the multiple is already pricing in some of that growth, and the 17.6% operating margin against a 29.2% gross margin is the number to test: it tells you how much of the top-line expansion is converting to profit. The 6.9 billion dollar market cap and absence from major indices make it a candidate for a deeper look on the margin trajectory and municipal order backlog.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 1 flagAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • moderate
    Score fell nine points
    ACCE score dropped from 73 to 64 over 90 days, with Momentum at 40. Momentum is the weakest component, so the decline is worth tracking.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 13, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue grew 18.7% over the last year, well ahead of its 14.0% average annual pace over five years.
  • Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $227M, and the company's return on equity is 20.6%.
Why it could disappoint
  • The stock trades at 24.5x trailing earnings, and its 19.8x forward multiple is still below the sector's 23.7x median.
  • Free cash flow yield is only 3.3%, and the price implies 7.7% yearly cash flow growth over the next five years.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

PRO

Ask ACCE

Valuation

INVESTOR
Where FSS's valuation models land
Price
$113.23
Model fair value
$78.80
Model range
$45.20 to $123
Fair value $78.80
Price $113
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish86% buy · 7 covering analysts
● Strong buy 4● Buy 2● Hold 1● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
1 buy · 0 sells
Since Sep 21, 2026, 1 member
Average delay
18 days
From trade to public filing
Full trade list on ProDo politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+0.7%
1 month
-0.0%
3 months
-4.8%
6 months
-2.4%
YTD
+4.3%
1 year
-9.5%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publication$112
19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CESTFair value$78.80$100$112
10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$114first publication$113
10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$100$105$113
6 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$105$107$116
4 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$107$106$116
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$106$107$115
25 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$107$106$113
21 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$106$107$114
18 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$107$106$115

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth80Value58Quality73Momentum40Total63
Valuation
Trailing P/E
25.2x
Forward P/E
19.8x
PEG
1.41
P/B
4.59x
EV / Revenue
3.0x
Book value/sh
$24.70
Enterprise value
$7.3B
Profitability
ROE
20.6%
FCF yield
3.19%
ROIC
10.2%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.43
Dividend yield
0.50%
Beta
1.23

Price

-9.6% · 1Y

Ask anything about FSS

Answered from Federal Signal Corporation Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 0% of peers
low 1.4x25.2xhigh 25.2x
ROEbetter than 80% of peers
low 4%21%high 51%
Div yieldbetter than 0% of peers
low 0.5%0.5%high 3.6%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
FSS Federal Signal Corporation Common Stock$113.23$7944% above25.2x20.6%7363
6305.T Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd.¥5314.00--12.4x10.9%5965
AGCO AGCO Corporation Common Stock$106.17$1157% below14.7x11.8%5243
OSK Oshkosh Corporation (Holding Company)Common Stock$134.29$11418% above15.1x12.4%5751
TEX Terex Corporation Common Stock$52.11$4031% above24.5x4.2%3851
ASHOKLEY.NS Ashok Leyland Ltd.₹146.03--24.5x-5752
543A.T ARCHION Corporation¥295.00--1.4x50.8%6972

Sector report card

Where FSS ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • PR Newswire•Jun 12, 2026
    Federal Signal Provides Update on Streator, Illinois Facility; Announces Signing of Definitive Agreement to Acquire Western Technology, Expanding its Presence in Portable Industrial Signaling Solutions for Hazardous Environments
37 filings
September 2026
Sep 28
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-25
View on SEC →
Sep 28
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-25
View on SEC →
August 2026
Aug 6
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-08-04
View on SEC →
34 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR