AGCO
ACCE-researchedOverview
ACCE thesis
AGCO manufactures and distributes agricultural equipment including tractors, combines, hay tools, sprayers, and grain storage systems under brands like Massey Ferguson, Fendt, and Valtra across 140 countries. The company benefits from structural farmland consolidation trends driving demand for higher-horsepower, precision agriculture equipment that commands premium pricing. Management expects 2024 margins to normalize as supply chain costs moderate and the company leverages its $1.2 billion investment in smart farming technology and factory automation completed over the past three years. Trading at 11.6x earnings with 17.5% ROE, AGCO offers cyclical exposure to global food security themes while South American sales provide natural currency hedging against a strong dollar. The stock sits 25% below 2021 highs despite revenue growing 14.3% over the past year.
- highEarnings multiple expansion riskTrailing P/E 11.0 vs forward P/E 19.4 implies ~43% earnings decline expected; market pricing in significant profit deterioration.
- highHeavy insider sellingLast 10 disclosed transactions: $0 buys vs $52.1M in sales. Zero insider purchases signals low conviction from insiders.
- moderateSharp sequential revenue declineQoQ revenue growth of -19.8% suggests accelerating top-line deterioration, potentially signaling demand weakness in farm machinery.
- moderateOperating margin compressionOperating margin at 3.9% is thin for an industrial; any further revenue decline could rapidly erode profitability or turn negative.
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Price
Valuation
INVESTORSix independent models converge on one confidence-weighted fair value, with full methodology and editable assumptions.
- +All six models: DCF, P/E and EV/EBITDA comps, Graham, dividend discount, residual income
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Quality
INVESTORThe full quality picture: conviction breakdown, earnings quality, score history, and backtested returns.
- +Conviction score breakdown and earnings-quality grade
- +Growth / value / quality / momentum component scores
- +90-day score history and score-threshold backtests
Analysts
Wall Street consensus
The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
- +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
- +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
- +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
Smart Money
PROFollow the institutions: 13F position changes, insider trades, and active 13D activist filings.
- +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
- +Recent open-market insider transactions
- +Active 13D activist filings and top holders
Compare
Where it sits vs peers
Algorithmic peers (6)
| Ticker | Company | Mcap | P/E | ROE | D/E | Yield | Quality | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OSK | Oshkosh Corporation (Holding Company)Common Stock | $9.1B | 16.6 | 12.4% | 0.24 | 1.5% | - | Compare |
| FSS | Federal Signal Corporation Common Stock | $6.9B | 24.5 | 20.6% | 0.41 | 0.5% | - | Compare |
| TEX | Terex Corporation Common Stock | $6.7B | 28.2 | 4.2% | 1.23 | 1.2% | - | Compare |
| HIAB.HE | Hiab Oyj | $4.7B | 32.0 | 12.3% | 0.16 | 1.9% | - | Compare |
| METSO.HE | Metso Oyj | $16.3B | 28.7 | 20.0% | 0.55 | 2.3% | - | Compare |
| IVG.MI | Iveco Group N.V. | $4.3B | 61.3 | 2.4% | 233.43 | 2.4% | - | Compare |
Sector report card
Where AGCO ranks against its sector peers on each metric.
News and Record
Press releases mentioning this company
- GlobeNewswire•Sep 11, 2026Global Agriculture Tractor Market Research Report 2026-2031: Unit Sales Set to Climb From 2.1 Million in 2025 to 2.6 Million by 2031 as Autonomous Tractors and Precision Farming Reshape Global Mechanization
- Business Wire•Sep 8, 2026AGCO Power: Forestry Machines Need Purpose-Built Off-Road Engines - Not Compromises
- PR Newswire•Sep 2, 2026Massey Ferguson Introduces N-Series Split/Narrow Row Planter at 2026 Farm Progress Show
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