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ACCE opinionOrrön Energy AB (publ) (ORRON.ST)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
kr 8.50
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST.
Price used: kr 7.75 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Dividend discount and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
56
out of 100
1-year return
+79.8%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Orrön Energy AB (publ) in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Orrön Energy is a Stockholm-listed developer and operator of wind and solar power plants, selling electricity under long-term contracts and power purchase agreements in Sweden and other European markets. Its edge is the development pipeline it has built up in-house, which lets it take projects from site acquisition through to operation and keep more of the value those projects create. Revenue growth of 169.6% reflects new capacity coming online, which is what the market should be tracking in the coming reporting periods. The company is still loss-making, with a -8.1% operating margin and -6.8% return on equity, though its 49.3% gross margin suggests the plants themselves earn well once running. At a market cap of about 2.3 billion SEK, it is small enough that execution on the next few projects will move the story, so the question for a deeper look is whether the margin turns positive as the new assets mature.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Free cash flow negative
Free cash flow is $-9.9M while the company reports a -48.5% net margin and -8.1% operating margin, so the business is consuming cash rather than generating it.
moderate
Revenue history shrinking long term
Revenue has a 5-year CAGR of -59.0%, and the +169.6% year-on-year jump is recovery from a much smaller base, not a sustained trend.
moderate
Valuation rests on forward earnings
With P/E at 0.0 and EV/EBITDA at 44.3, the stock is priced on forward P/E of 35.5 and the current price of kr 7.75, which depends on earnings that have not yet materialised.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue more than tripled year over year, rising 169.6%, showing the business is growing fast from a low base.
Analysts' mean price target of SEK 9.85 sits 23.5% above the current share price of kr 7.75.
The diluted share count fell 2.6% last fiscal year, so each remaining share holds a slightly larger claim on the company.
Why it could disappoint
The company lost money on sales, with a net margin of -48.5%, meaning it spent far more than it earned.
Free cash flow over the last 12 months was -EUR 10M, so the business is burning cash rather than generating it.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 35.5x against a sector median of 18.4x, leaving little room for error.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where ORRON.ST's valuation models land
Price
kr 7.75
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
kr 4.72
Model
Fair value
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