Celsia (CELSIA.CL) fair value

ACCE thesis

Celsia operates renewable generation (hydro, solar and wind) and an electricity transmission and distribution business in Colombia, alongside its energy retail arm, which gives it a mix of regulated and contracted cash flows. The structural case rests on that regulated base and Colombia's push to decarbonise its grid, though the company's 19.5% operating margin and 28.8% gross margin show a business that earns decent operating returns on its assets. Revenue growth of 2.7% is modest, so any re-rating depends on capacity additions and tariff outcomes rather than volume growth alone. The valuation is not cheap at 15.9x trailing and 18.7x forward earnings, and with ROE at 5.6% the equity is not generating much return for shareholders. The score of 42/100 and absence from any index suggest the market has little reason to own it yet, so this merits a deeper look only if the reader can underwrite a specific project pipeline and the regulatory backdrop.