Eolus Aktiebolag (publ) (EOLU-B.ST) fair value

ACCE thesis

Eolus develops, owns and operates wind and solar parks in Sweden and the Baltics, and sells power and project rights to other investors. The thesis rests on the asset base it is building into a much larger set of operating farms, but the reported numbers at the moment show a company in a trough: revenue down 96.7%, a 1.8% gross margin and a -550% operating margin, with ROE at -20.1%. A forward P/E of 4.4 against a 1.2 billion SEK market cap signals the market is pricing in a recovery in earnings from project sales and operating cash flow, not the current income statement. The deeper look should therefore focus on whether the 2024-25 revenue collapse reflects lumpy project divestment timing rather than a broken model, and on how much of the forward earnings estimate depends on a small number of sales or commissioning milestones.