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ON
ACCE-researched

ON Semiconductor Corporation Common Stock (ON) fair value

Technology · Semiconductors · NASDAQ · United States
$72.25-1.34%
Market cap $28.5BNext earnings 2026-11-02Updated Oct 24, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 39% above our fair value
Price
$72.25
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$52.08
Model range
$49.45 to $54.70
Fair value $52.08
Price $72.25
2 models fit ON Semiconductor Corporation Common Stock and they agree: 2 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionON Semiconductor Corporation Common Stock (ON)
Fair value (2 models)
$52.08
ACCE price target
$77.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 24 Oct 2026, 16:06 CEST; previously $58.99 since 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $102 since 19 Apr 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 24 Oct 2026, 16:06 CEST.
Price used: $72.25 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
38.7% above
-27.9% to fair value
ACCE score
59
out of 100
Analysts
48% buy
31 covering
P/E
49.5x
forward 16.5x
1-year return
+39.5%
Dividend yield
0.00%

ON Semiconductor Corporation Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
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OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

ON Semiconductor designs and makes power semiconductors, including silicon carbide (SiC) MOSFETs and image sensors used in electric vehicles, industrial automation and data centre power supplies. Its advantage is manufacturing scale in SiC, a segment where few rivals can supply automotive-grade parts at volume, and that position supports a 42.8% gross margin and a 19.5% operating margin. Revenue is growing 9.2%, and the forward P/E of 16.5 sits far below the trailing 49.8, which says the market expects earnings to recover from a cyclical trough. The gap between trailing and forward multiples is the main thing to test: it depends on whether the EV and industrial demand that drove recent orders holds, and an 8.3% ROE shows the returns have not yet caught up with the margin profile. The name merits a deeper look if the portfolio team wants exposure to the SiC and power-electronics cycle and is comfortable with the earnings recovery being back-end loaded.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Valuation disconnect with growth
    P/E of 50.0 on 36.6% earnings growth, but 5-year revenue CAGR only 2.7%. Trailing multiple inflated by cyclical earnings spike; forward P/E 16.5 suggests market expects deceleration.
  • moderate
    Insider selling concentration
    Last 10 disclosures show $10.59M in sales, zero buys.
  • moderate
    Short interest elevated
    10.4% short interest is material for a $30B cap. Suggests skepticism about sustainability of recent earnings growth or valuation.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Recent revenue acceleration of 9.2% year over year signals demand recovery after years of 2.7% average growth.
  • Share buybacks reduced diluted count by 4.8% last year while free cash flow yield stands at 4.7%, supporting shareholder returns.
Why it could disappoint
  • Return on invested capital of 0.9% is far below the 5.2% risk-free rate, destroying shareholder value on new capital.
  • Trailing P/E of 50.0x reflects a stock priced for perfection when ROE of 8.3% lags cost of capital.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 2, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where ON's valuation models land
Price
$72.25
Model fair value
$52.08
Model range
$49.45 to $54.70
Fair value $52.08
Price $72.25
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Mixed48% buy · 31 covering analysts
● Strong buy 13● Buy 2● Hold 16● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
1 buy · 0 sells
Since Sep 28, 2026, 1 member
Average delay
11 days
From trade to public filing
Full trade list on ProDo politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+0.3%
1 month
-2.5%
3 months
-16.8%
6 months
-26.6%
YTD
+33.4%
1 year
+39.5%

SEC filings

Held by ETFs

ETFs we cover that hold ON Semiconductor Corporation Common Stock among their largest holdings, by weight.

  • QCLN · First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy9.2% of the fund
  • PSI · Invesco Semiconductors ETF3.1% of the fund
  • XSD · SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF2.9% of the fund
  • SOXX · iShares Semiconductor ETF1.6% of the fund
  • QQQJ · Invesco NASDAQ Next Gen 100 ETF1.5% of the fund
  • SMH · VanEck Semiconductor ETF0.5% of the fund
  • SOXL · Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X0.3% of the fund
Holdings as of 2026-10-24

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
24 Oct 2026, 16:06 CESTFair value$52.08$58.99$72.25
24 Oct 2026, 16:06 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publication$72.25
16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$77.00$102$73.70
12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$58.99$39.45$77.53
9 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$39.45$57.86$82.51
6 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$57.86$56.63$84.89
2 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$56.63$57.23$76.87
29 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$57.23$44.91$77.20
27 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$44.91$44.18$77.20
25 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$44.18$42.77$74.10

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth76Value47Quality67Momentum46Total59
Valuation
Trailing P/E
49.5x
Forward P/E
16.5x
PEG
1.35
P/B
3.97x
EV / Revenue
4.8x
Book value/sh
$18.54
Enterprise value
$29.3B
Profitability
ROE
8.3%
FCF yield
4.98%
ROIC
0.9%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.45
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
2.05

Member of

ACCE Semiconductors

Price

+42.5% · 1Y

Ask anything about ON

Answered from ON Semiconductor Corporation Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 67% of peers
low 15.8x49.5xhigh 1315.5x
ROEbetter than 67% of peers
low 3%8%high 31%
Div yieldbetter than 17% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 1.0%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
ON ON Semiconductor Corporation Common Stock$72.25$5239% above49.5x8.3%6759
CRDO Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd Ordinary Shares$147.29--57.7x30.7%10068
GFS GlobalFoundries Inc. Ordinary Shares$44.39$452% below33.9x6.2%6346
6723.T Renesas Electronics Corporation¥2886.50--15.8x14.0%7866
STM STMicroelectronics N.V. Common Stock$44.02--1100.5x2.7%5146
STMMI.MI STMicroelectronics N.V.€39.45€4717% below1315.0x2.7%5149
STMPA.PA STMicroelectronics N.V.€39.47--1315.5x2.7%5151

Sector report card

Where ON ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • GlobeNewswire•Oct 15, 2026
    onsemi to Announce Third Quarter Financial Results
  • GlobeNewswire•Oct 14, 2026
    onsemi and Sungrow Advance Utility-Scale Energy Storage Performance with SiC Hybrid Technology
  • GlobeNewswire•Sep 16, 2026
    Subaru to Evaluate onsemi's Embedded Power Platform for Future EVs
5 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 2
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-02
View on SEC →
Oct 2
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-01
View on SEC →
Oct 1
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-10-01
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR