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Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionCredo Technology Group Holding Ltd Ordinary Shares (CRDO)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$192
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $182 since 22 May 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $147 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
68
out of 100
Analysts
95% buy
20 covering
P/E
57.7x
forward 30.9x
1-year return
-2.4%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd Ordinary Shares in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Credo designs the high-speed connectivity silicon that moves data between servers and switches in AI data centers, including active electrical cables (AECs), optical DSPs and SerDes chips sold to hyperscalers and cable and switch makers. Its edge is in the signal-integrity analog and DSP work that keeps 400G and 800G links running at low power and low error rates, which shows up in a 67.1% gross margin and a 25.2% operating margin. Revenue growth of 114.7% reflects AI cluster buildouts pulling through its interconnect products, and that demand is the near-term driver to test against each new customer win and product ramp. At a 30.9x forward P/E against a trailing 63.3x, the market is pricing in a meaningful earnings step-up, and a 30.7% ROE suggests the business is already converting that growth into shareholder returns. The stock belongs on the list for a deeper look at customer concentration and how durable the AI interconnect cycle is.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Valuation disconnect
Current price $216.55 vs ACCE fair value $182.00 (19% premium). Trailing P/E 76.8 and EV/EBITDA 71.9 are extreme despite strong growth. Forward P/E 22.3 implies deceleration priced in.
high
Insider selling pressure
Last 10 disclosures show $46.23M in insider sales, zero buys. Insiders own 9.3% but are liquidating, not accumulating.
moderate
Growth deceleration risk
Revenue YoY +114.7% but QoQ only +9.6%. Sequential slowdown suggests hypergrowth phase may be normalizing. Forward P/E of 22.3 assumes material earnings moderation.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-07-31 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 114.7% year over year with a 5-year average of 93.5%, demonstrating sustained hypergrowth.
Net margin of 33.8% and ROE of 30.7% show the company converts growth into exceptional profitability.
Forward P/E of 22.3x sits below the sector median of 29.3x despite 95% of analysts rating Buy or Strong Buy.
Why it could disappoint
At 76.8x trailing P/E, the stock prices in perfection and leaves no room for a single quarter of disappointment.
Free cash flow yield of only 0.6% on $248M annual FCF means the market is pricing in perpetual growth far above the risk-free rate of 5.2%.
Share count dilution of 3.9% last year erodes per-share value even as total revenue and cash flow grow.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Dec 7, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Where CRDO's valuation models land
Price
$147.29
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$164
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
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