ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Price used: ¥2887 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 08:30 CEST.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
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Data
ACCE score
66
out of 100
P/E
15.8x
forward 10.5x
1-year return
+56.2%
Dividend yield
0.96%
Renesas Electronics Corporation in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Renesas makes microcontrollers, analog and power semiconductors, and the automotive chips that go into engine control, battery management and ADAS systems, which is where most of its revenue comes from. Its moat is the installed base: embedded MCUs are designed into a car or industrial machine for years, and switching suppliers means requalifying hardware and software, so once a design wins, the revenue tends to recur. The near-term driver is the rebound in cyclical demand after the 2023 inventory correction, with revenue growth of 28.5% reported against a 58.8% gross margin and a 23.9% operating margin. The stock trades at 16.2x trailing earnings but 10.6x forward, a gap that implies the market expects earnings to rise sharply and is not yet paying for it. The forward multiple is the number to test: if the earnings recovery in the data does not hold, the discount is less of a bargain than it looks.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Negative free cash flow
Free cash flow is reported at $-71.8B despite a 22.9% net margin and 28.5% revenue growth. The gap between reported earnings and cash generation needs explaining before sizing a position.
moderate
Trades below ACCE target
The stock trades 19.4% below the ACCE price target of ¥3580.00, with the current price at ¥2886.50. The discount reflects the cash flow question rather than a clear mispricing.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 28.5% year over year, far faster than its 7.1% average annual pace over five years.
At a 10.6x forward P/E and ¥2886.50 share price, the stock looks cheap against its earnings outlook.
Analysts' mean price target of JPY 5134.61 implies 75.9% upside from the current share price.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -JPY 71.8B, despite a 22.9% net margin.
Return on equity of 14.0% is modest for a business that is supposed to be growing this quickly.
The stock trades 19.4% below the ACCE price target of ¥3580.00, which is only a modest discount in the stock's favour.
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